Sidelining Akhilesh Yadav isn’t a sound move
The truce that Mulayam Singh Yadav brokered weeks ago in the Samajwadi Party Government, the party and his family, seems to be holding for now. But the balance of power has unambiguously shifted in senior party leader and Minister Shivpal Yadav's favour and away from Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav. Since taking charge as the party's State unit chief, Shivpal Yadav has been systematically weeding out functionaries known to be close to the Chief Minister. Now, he has announced the merger of muscleman Mukhtar Ansari's Quami Ekta Dal with the Samajwadi Party, against Akhilesh Yadav's wishes.
The Chief Minister had protested vehemently when the merger idea was first floated weeks before he was stripped of the State chief's post. Then, he had managed to have his voice heard and the plan was shelved. Now, the tables have been turned and Shivpal Yadav is in the driver's seat. The powerful Minister does not anymore bother about the Chief Minister's reservation nor does he consider it necessary to take his approval. He recently said that the Chief Minister had “been informed” of the merger decision.
Akhilesh Yadav's sidelining and humiliation is happening in a coordinated manner and apparently without any internal hitch, since party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav has thrown his weight behind his brother Shivpal Yadav, leaving son Akhilesh Yadav to fend for himself. The Samajwadi Party's old guard believes that the party can return to power on the strength of tried and tested veterans and through the divisive agendas that were invoked in the past. Mulayam Singh Yadav seems to be going along with this theory — in a recent conversation, he is reported to have remarked that the party would not have fared badly in the 2014 lok Sabha election had it heeded Shivpal Yadav's advice (and not gone by Akhilesh Yadav's). With the Bharatiya Janata Party reviving strongly in Uttar Pradesh and the Bahujan Samaj Party re-asserting its primacy, these are desperate times for the Samajwadi Party.
The question is: Can Shivpal Yadav and group lead the party to victory in the 2017 Assembly electionIJ They are a discredited lot. Demography has changed, voters' demands and aspirations have changed, the old guard is viewed with suspicion, and Akhilesh Yadav, despite his faults, is considered the best that's available in the Samajwadi Party. It's difficult to understand how the voters will be driven to support a party that has yet again propped up power-brokers and cut to size somebody who tried to inject a new dose of politics in caste-driven Uttar Pradesh. Besides, the Chief Minister has built for himself a strong support base within and outside the party in the nearly five years he has been in office, and that base is not going to remain silent. Finally, the new and young Samajwadi Party voters may get turned off by the realisation that, even if the party returns to power, Akhilesh Yadav may not return as Chief Minister.