lifestyle and behavioural changes would be an important part of solutions to be implemented globally to deal with climate change. Mere agreements between nations will not address the problems the world faces
The Paris climate change accord is a historical development that has erected a gateway for the world to move towards a pattern of development that will reduce the risks of climate change and help attain sustainability. More than anything, the pact represents the triumph of knowledge and science over ignorance, indifference and vested interests.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, established in 1988, has over the years, mobilised thousands of scientists from all over the world to provide in a transparent manner, rigorous and robust assessments of climate change.
The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), which was released in the presence of UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon on November 2, 2014, provided a timely warning to the global community on pursuing business as usual. It also outlined a path by which we could reduce the risks inherent in unmitigated climate change through specific measures, which would reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases and adapt to the impacts of climate change which are now inevitable on account of past emissions.
Climate change poses a huge risk in developing countries especially in poor communities and in vulnerable areas like small island States. Climate change amplifies the existing risks and creates new risks for natural and human systems. These risks are unevenly distributed and are generally greater for disadvantaged people.
The Paris agreement by itself will not meet the accepted goals of limiting temperature increase to two degree Celsius, as is clearly desired by the global community. In fact, the text of the agreement “notes with concern that the estimated aggregate greenhouse gas emission levels in 2025 and 2030 resulting from the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions do not fall within least-cost two degree Celsius scenarios but rather lead to a projected level of 55 gigatonnes in 2030”.
It also notes that much greater emission reduction would be required to hold the increase in the global average temperature to below two degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels by reducing emissions to 40 gigatonnes or to 1.5 degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels by reducing emissions to an even lower level. This level is expected to be identified in a special report which the Parties to the Convention have invited the IPCC to provide in 2018.
In other words, the currently submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions are clearly not adequate for meeting the goals which have been laid down in Paris. Thus, additional efforts will be required urgently.
The Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC had clearly stated that without additional efforts to reduce GHG emissions beyond those in place today, global mean surface temperature increases in 2100 could range from 3.7 degree Celsius to 4.8 degree Celsius. It also stated that delaying additional mitigation to 2030 will substantially increase the challenges associated with limiting warming over the 21st century to below two degree Celsius relative to pre-industrial levels.
Those would require substantially higher rates of emissions reductions from 2030 to 2050; a much more rapid scale-up of low-carbon energy over this period; a larger reliance on carbon dioxide removal in the long term; and higher transitional and long-term economic impacts. Indeed, currently submitted INDCs would certainly help to slow down the rate of increase in emissions which grew from 39 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2 equivalent in 2010 to 49 Gt of CO2 equivalent in 2100. However, current INDCs will not come anywhere close to actually reducing emissions by 2030.
There are several other issues on which, though the Paris agreement has articulated desirable intentions, no specific commitments, goals or targets have been accepted. The developing countries had demanded very specific commitments on financing measures that they would be expected to implement,and these have not been provided other than as an intent. Nor is there a specific commitment on access to technologies which would facilitate mitigation in the developing countries. Even more important is the argument of the developing world, particularly from the most vulnerable regions like the small island states, that they be compensated for loss and damage that they are having to bear already on account of the impacts of climate change. In 2011, the IPCC had brought out a Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, which clearly found an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events which are the result of human induced climate change. That particular report has had a major impact in informing public opinion that climate change is not merely steady increase in temperature but actually a disruption in the stability of the climate system. As a result, public perceptions now often link extreme events, such as the heavy rainfall in Chennai this year, with climate change as the cause. Several parts of the world have suffered major human and economic losses as a result of climate related disasters, and the countries affected are, therefore, seeking compensation from the developed countries which have grown in the last several decades by emitting huge quantities of GHGs and are thus largely responsible for human induced climate change. The Paris agreement has skirted the issue.
The outcome of Paris would have left several parties dissatisfied and feeling that they have given away too much. But, in the ultimate analysis, the French Government, its leadership at the level of the President, the Foreign Minister and the Environment Minister, deserve congratulations on having managed an extremely difficult process. Credit must also be given to the receptivity of global leaders to these facts, which led to strong determination all around for arriving at an agreement. However, this is only the start of the journey on which the global community has to move rapidly. If we fail to move with the spirit of the Paris agreement, rather than the substance which may still be inadequate, generations yet to come would hold us liable for risks that would imperil the earth’s ecosystems.
lifestyle and behavioural changes would be an important part of solutions to be implemented globally to deal with climate change. Mahatma Gandhi had predicted for the civilised West, “A time is coming when those, who are in the mad rush today of multiplying their wants, will retrace their steps and say;What have we doneIJ Modern civilisation is such that one has only to be patient and it will be self-destroyed.” Climate change has to be taken as a serious challenge with destructive characteristics, and we in the East should restrain ourselves from emulating those aspects of modern life which have destructive implications for all life on planet Earth.
(The writer is director-general, The Energy and Resources Institute)