Bhutan is India’s friend. let’s keep it that way
Bhutan may be one of the world's youngest democracies but this past Saturday as it elected a new Government, the tiny Himalayan nation made clear that it has firmly established itself in the democratic mould. This was the country's second general election since 2008, when Bhutan's ‘Dragon King' voluntarily ceded absolute powers and made way for a representative Government. Saturday's polling, which saw an impressive 66.1 per cent turnout, marked the end of a two phase process that began in May, eliminated two of four political parties in the fray and prepared the ground for a run-off between the ruling Druk Phuensum Tshogpa and the opposition People's Democratic Party. Interestingly, while the former performed better in the first round, the latter eventually swept the election, winning 32 of the 47 National Assembly seats. The PDP's leader and now Prime Minister-elect Tshering Tobgay captured the people's imagination with his dynamic personality, while his record as a strong and articulate Opposition leader helped him fight off persistent worries that his party was composed of political newbies. The former civil servant's staunch criticism of the incumbent regime's claims to Gross National Happiness as a hollow electoral slogan also struck a cord with the electorate. Allegations of graft levelled at the DPT Government seem to have led to the regime’s undoing as well.
In the days running up to the election, however, it was India's decision to cut fuel subsidy to Bhutan that usurped the campaign narratives. The Tobgay camp portrayed the decision as the DPT Government's failure to effectively manage Bhutan's foreign policy with India — an important neighbour upon whom it is dependent for its economic and security needs. The blame was laid squarely at Prime Minister Jigme Thinley's doorstep whose dalliances with the Chinese were believed to have irked the mandarins in New Delhi. So potentially damaging were these accusations that Prime Minister Thinley had to clarify live on national television.
While there is no way to quantify the impact India's subsidy cut may have had on the election in Bhutan, one thing is for sure: It's announcement was badly timed by New Delhi. There have some been reports that the decision was directly communicated to Bhutanese officials by Indian oil companies, without the knowledge of the Ministry of External Affairs, after an agreement lapsed on June 30. Even if this was the case, it still points to mismanagement on the Indian side. New Delhi's decision to cut fuel subsidies, which adversely impacted the Bhutanese poor on the eve of a general election, has already led to talk in Thimphu of South Block picking favourites and playing big brother — the same accusations that have been hurled by Kathmandu as well. New Delhi must proceed with caution. Not only does Bhutan need India's assistance, India too needs Bhutan particularly to supplement its energy sources. Also, because Bhutan is the last of the Asian nations where China does not have a toe-hold, Beijing is working to change that. It remains to be seen if New Delhi will be able to hold its position in Thimphu or it will fritter away the traditional support that India has enjoyed there. It has already lost valuable leverage in Kathmandu, Colombo, Male and even Dhaka.