For talks to succeed, action on terror must come
The leaderships of India and Pakistan have displayed maturity by not allowing the Pathankot terror attack to derail dialogue between the two countries. While it is true that talks between the two Foreign Secretaries scheduled for January 15 have got postponed for the ‘near future', this has been done through mutual consent (the two Foreign Secretaries spoke with each other before agreeing to a postponement) given the new situation. By no means can the process be considered as ‘cancelled' or ‘called off'. Also, New Delhi has readily accepted Pakistan's offer of sending its investigation team to India to take the probe into the attack forward. India has signalled its approval for the first steps that Pakistan has taken based on leads it has given to the latter about Jaish-e-Mohammed's role in the Pathankot strike, but also hoped that this would be followed through to its logical end so that the perpetrators do not get away. There are those who believe that the detention of Jaish's members is only a sham since the masterminds remain untouched. One must appreciate that it cannot have been easy for the Nawaz Sharif Government to have taken even these initial measures of first working on the evidence India provided (unlike in the past where Islamabad had trashed material on the 26/11 Mumbai attacks as “literature”) and then acting against the Jaish. However, the apprehension that the process could end up as dismally as it did in the 26/11 case, is real. If Jaish chief Maulana Masood Azhar remains free or is detained or arrested and then set free after a while on various pretexts, Pakistan 's efforts will lose credibility. This fear is more real given that the Jaish-e-Mohammed has continued to work freely despite being banned there since over a decade ago; and the fact that it is said to have close links with the Pakistan Army which calls the shots on the India policy. Maulana Azhar had been in custody before, just as the 2008 Mumbai incident masterminds Zaki-ur-Rehman lakhvi and Hafiz Saeed. Unfortunately, they were all set free largely because the authorities in Pakistan showed no desire to prosecute them. Since then, all these terrorists have been having a field day, pouring venom on India and getting away.
The silver lining this time is the unprecedented level of communication between the two nations in the midst of the crisis. The National Security Advisors and the Foreign Secretaries have been in touch, while Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Mr Sharif too have maintained contact. When one adds to this the absence of jingoism from both the sides (indeed, India and Pakistan have recorded their appreciation of each other's conduct) and the enormous political capital the two leaders have invested in keeping the dialogue process on track, the scenario remains positive. It is being said that, unlike in the past instances, the Pakistan Army led by General Raheel Sharif is on board. This is far from clear. Opinion even among analysts in Pakistan — what to talk of India — is divided. There can be an amount of certainty that the Army has indeed changed its outlook if Pakistan cracks down on ‘good' terror groups like the Jaish and the lashkar-e-Tayyeba and their leaders, as it has been doing against ‘bad terrorists' like the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and the Al Qaeda.