Iraq’s incumbent PM may secure a third term
In the shadow of growing unrest and sectarian strife, Iraq went to the poll on Wednesday to elect a new Parliament for the third time since the US invasion of 2003 and the first since American troops withdrew from the country in 2011. A surge in pre-poll violence made this campaign one of Iraq's bloodiest with more than a 160 people killed in this past week alone. Indeed, despite tight security that included a ban on car travel (to avoid suicide attacks), air traffic, and an effective country-wide lockdown, at least two women died on Wednesday when a bomb went off at a polling station near Kirkuk in the northern part of the country. Al Qaeda's franchise in the region, the Islamic State in Iraq and the levant or ISIS, claimed responsibility for the attack. In this situation, it is difficult to predict the results of the election or assess what kind of impact they may have in the war-ravaged country. Partial results are expected next week but it will possibly take months before a new Government takes charge. There will be much jockeying and horse-trading before the winning coalition takes shape. The only thing that is relatively certain is that Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki will continue to wield power no matter how the election plays out. He has already served two terms and seems confident of securing a third victory. Two factors are expected to work in his favour. First, his State of law Alliance remains a fairly cohesive unit unlike other rival formations. Remember, during the 2010 parliamentary poll, it was the Iraqiya coalition, a Sunni grouping led by former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, which won the maximum number of seats. However, after the election, other Shia parties joined hands and rallied around Mr Maliki, thereby getting him a second term. Also, in the 2013 Provincial elections, the State of law Alliance emerged as the single largest political bloc in seven out of 12 States.
The second factor that should help the Prime Minister consolidate the Shia vote in his favour again is the rising threat of Al Qaeda-backed Sunni terrorism. Since ISIS and allied militant groups took over the Sunni-majority Anbar, Mosul and Salahudin Provinces and established control in large parts of Diyala and Kirkuk, Government forces have struggled to wrest back control. Even though they have failed to do so, the ruling coalition has successfully presented itself as the only force standing between the people and the terrorists. Indeed, members of Prime Minister Maliki's Alliance believe that the fighting should increase their tally in the 328-seat Parliament from 70 in 2010 to 90 seats this time around. Nevertheless, Mr Maliki still faces an uphill battle. Having turned Iraq's Sunni community against him with his sectarian politics, he is now losing Shia support as well. Mr Maliki heads a corrupt regime that hasn't cared to fix Iraq's broken economy and there is much dissent within the ranks. Even if he manages to script the winning formula yet again, he will have a tough time holding onto it.