Come September, there will be little doubt in the minds of supporters and detractors alike, that the Narendra Modi Government has begun to deliver on its many economic and political promises
Come September was the name of a famous hit film from the long gone 1960s (1961), a romantic comedy starring Rock Hudson, Gina lollobrigida, Sandra Dee and Bobby Darin. It had a catchy theme tune, universally beloved countrywide, in the single-screen movie halls of those days. It was played before the National Anthem, with which each screening began, and before the trailers, cartoons and the Government documentary. And again, during the ‘interval’, de rigueur for the sale of cigarettes, soft drinks, peanuts, and the like. It was generally followed by another piece of music entitled Tequila, but this latter, a latino influenced jazzy instrumental, a dinner joint favorite too, was not from a popular Hollywood film.
1961 may be shrouded in nostalgia, but the 1960s were both traumatic and eventful for India: The Chinese invasion in 1962, Jawaharlal Nehru’s passing in 1964, the war with Pakistan in 1965, and so on. Cut to the present day. After six months, it will be September. Budget 2015 has laid a solid foundation on which the Government, particularly its infrastructure-building arms, such as the ministries in charge of roads, ports, power, mining, railways etc, will have to raise several multiples in additional resources, in order to succeed.
Two days after presenting the Union Budget, Minister for Finance Arun Jaitley, on a private visit to America, said as much in New York, probably hoping to spur huge American investment. There is little doubt that additional money from various sources will be raised. This, alongside a vigorous implementation programme, to run concurrently, and quell all the criticism. Indian Railways is already tapping into domestic monies from insurance behemoth life Insurance Corporation. This is an example of the creative sources of funding, the Government will tap, along with attractive incentives to make it worth the while for the investor.
Six months completed from now, the efficacy of this power Budget will be evident on the ground, and become, in some measure, undeniable. It will lead also to a sharp burst of gross domestic product growth. Side-by-side with this economic development, came the historic alliance Government of Jammu & Kashmir, born just one day after the Budget was presented in the lok Sabha. And this, on a ‘lucky’, rainy, blustery Sunday, in Srinagar. It was composed of a saffron and green alliance, which will also complete six months, come September.
Building upon this great democratic dividend is very likely. There is great scope to revive and rediscover cultural synergies of the healing kind — with links India has always had to the inclusive Sufi-influenced strain of Islam, with some of its traditional roots in Kashmir. It is a benign, peaceful form, that refuses, despite strenuous efforts by the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence and its proxies, to let the heartless jihadi poison take hold.
And it has traditionally been complemented by the tolerance of moderate Hinduism, though all attitudes, on every side, fallen into disuse through years of acrimony, will need a bit of dusting off. It will be greatly helped, if the Pandits, essential to the warp and weft of the valley, are re-inducted into their homelands. With a Hindu Deputy Chief Minister, Mr Nirmal Singh, this might indeed be facilitated.
The separatists and the Wahhabi-influenced radical sections, both domestic and across the border, may be persuaded by the Chief Minister, likewise, to see that the Indian democratic process has much to offer, as epitomised by the remarkable change-of-heart in former separatist Sajjad lone. This Government, in the course of its six-year tenure, will surely find the solution to the long-festering insurgency and terrorist problem fostered by Pakistan in the valley. It will solve it, because the main initiative for it will come from the suave Mufti Mohammed Sayeed-led State Assembly, ably backed by coalition partner BJP, both in Jammu & Kashmir, and at the Centre.
This collaboration will prove to be politically enabling for the BJP, because it can change the long-held ideological positions under its coalition compulsions, as it has done to achieve a Common Minimum Programme, with the PDP. There are already some statements indicating the stalled bilateral talks with Pakistan are about to resume.
The changes in the big picture are also of great help. With India drawing closer to both the US and China, Pakistan is likely to be keen on finding a solution, given its own internal problems with runaway terrorism and economic pressures growing ever bigger. This, even as American involvement in Afghanistan reduces, along with its dependence on Pakistan; and China recalibrates its relationship with India.
Some new movements are expected as early as April, when Mr Narendra Modi goes to China on his return state visit. The long-standing border issues between India and China are also likely to be settled soon, probably by formalising the line of Actual Control into a border, and thereby, forming a template for the line of Control with Pakistan also turning into the pukka border. This will end the controversy of the historical Indian claim on Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, in favor of a necessary realism. This Government has also been dealing sternly with Pakistan’s ceasefire violations, making them far costlier than heretofore.
There may also be a United Nations Security Council seat for India in the offing, with both the US and China backing it. Neither were so keen before, but the geopolitics seems to have changed. India’s relationship with other South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation countries has also been revived recently, and continues to get better every day. An impending membership of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation will also draw India closer to China. India, is inexorably headed into a period of high growth economically, the highest in percentage terms in the world presently, complemented by a proactive global diplomacy, led by the Prime Minister himself.
Come September, there will also be little doubt in the minds of supporters and detractors alike, that the Modi Government is beginning to deliver on its economic promises by means of substantial implementation. The country will be headed towards 8.5 per cent GDP growth in 2016, and on to sustainable double-digits for years to come, particularly if this Government wins a second term. And the main reason for being certain of this is because of the massive emphasis on fresh investment in enabling infrastructure, manufacturing for jobs, and farm-related modernisation to uplift some 60 per cent of the population.
India is, as old India-hand Ian Jack put it recently in Granta, “a country beginning to change fundamentally, preparing to say goodbye to its old self”. Jack thought it was happening already, 50 years on, in 1997. But that was just the trailer. Come September, the main movie is going to start.