Given the self-inflicted hurdles, the Ashraf Ghani regime in Afghanistan has not only survived but is on the path of stabilisation despite its divided ministries owning allegiance to different leaders
Two peace processes were reignited this month — India-Pakistan and Afghanistan-Pakistan. Pakistan is the common denominator. Neither will fructify anytime soon till the Army in Pakistan is subordinated to the elected Government. Most Afghans, like most Indians, accuse Pakistan of cross-border terrorism and harbour an unbridgeable trust deficit with Islamabad .
External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj became the first Cabinet Minister of the Modi Government to visit Pakistan — for the Heart of Asia conference on Afghanistan, hosted by Islamabad this month. For New Delhi, Kabul is its strategic anchor in the West of the Indian subcontinent, and attending the conference on Afghanistan in Pakistan was vital in establishing India’s bonafides as a legitimate stakeholder in Afghanistan, a claim invariably challenged by Pakistan.
Equally, for Ms Swaraj to be welcomed by her Pakistani hosts, the deadlock over India-Pakistan dialogue had to be broken prior to her visit. The ice-breaker in Bangkok was a scramble to get the National Security Advisor-led delegations settle the sequencing for resumption of dialogue.
At Paris last month, not only did Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif clear the decks for the breakthrough with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, he also charmed President Ashraf Ghani, narrowing the trust deficit caused by the failed Murree reconciliation talks and Pakistan’s “undeclared state of hostilities against Afghanistan”. Mr Ghani was in Islamabad for the Heart of Asia conference even as reports that the new Taliban leader, Mullah Akhtar Mansour, had been killed in the continuing power struggle among the Quetta Shura were being confirmed. In principle, Mr Ghani, under US pressure has given the green light for resumption of the peace process with the Taliban.
Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence is mediating between rival Taliban factions to settle the leadership issue. According to reports, Indian Ambassador in Kabul Amar Sinha has said that in view of rivalry for leadership among competing groups, Pakistan would be allowed to decide and select the Taliban leadership for dialogue, making the peace process Pakistan-led and Pakistan-owned whereas it should be Afghanistan-led and Afghanistan-owned.
The US Department of Defence report of June 2015 which predates the fall of Kunduz, says the Afghanistan National Security Force’s capability and morale will be sufficient to set conditions for an Afghanistan-led and Afghanistan-owned reconciliation process.
Mr Sinha added that, according to the existing agreement, the Haqqanis will become part of the Taliban (their representative attended the Murree talks) in any future peace talks. He questioned the Haqqani network’s representation as “ït is on the terrorist list of many countries”. One senior Afghan official described the reconciliation scenario: “We are at the mercy and will of the Pakistan security establishment”. He added, “There is no single Taliban. They are in three groups and ISI is in the shadows.”
Of grave concern to Afghanistan are three other issues: Declining state of security; credibility of the National Unity Government; and the downturn in the economy. Afghans call 2015 the ‘one-year setback’. Despite the agreement between the National Directorate of Security and the ISI, Kabul was rocked by nearly 100 bombings, culminating in the strategic debacle at the Northern citadel of Kunduz which precipitated the decision by US President Barack Obama to extend by one year, the withdrawal of US forces, from end 2016 to end 2017.
One of American commanders in Afghanistan, General John F Campbell’s missions is to prevent the strategic collapse of the Kabul Government. According to Afghan security experts, at any one time, roughly five to 10 per cent of the country’s 360 district headquarters in the 34 Provinces are in the Taliban hands. Their cyclic loss and retrieval has become integral to the counter-Taliban campaign. Till mid-November, 4,302 soldiers were killed and 8,000 wounded. In addition, 10,000 civilians were killed which represents a 22 per cent increase over 2014.
The National Unity Government of Messers Ghani and Abdullah is a unique but extra-constitutional arrangement. It is unprecedented that Kabul has a Government comprising North and South. Given the self-inflicted hurdles, it has not only survived but is on the path of stabilisation despite divided ministries owning allegiance to different leaders. Mr Ghani’s strained relations with former President Hamid Karzai have exacerbated governance.
Afghanistan-Pakistan relations are at an all-time low. Still, he is determined to keep trying for peace which seems a mirage. So incensed was NDS chief Rahmatullah Nabil about Mr Ghani kowtowing to Islamabad that he resigned recently.
The economy is in distress with flight of capital and 200,000 Afghans fleeing the country making them the second biggest new migrants to Europe after the Syrians. The gross domestic product has regressed from 3.7 per cent in 2013 to 1.7 per cent in 2014. Kabul’s annual revenue is two billion dollars, whereas it needs $12 billion to run the country excluding the $4.3 billion tab for the ANSF which the Americans pick up. Following his visit to New Delhi last month, NSA Hanif Atmar accompanied by Omar Samad, Strategic Affairs Advisor to Mr Abdullah, travelled to Brussels to obtain financial commitments from the European Union and Nato for the next two years. A financial collapse is a doomsday scenario.
The audacious suicide attacks against the airport at Kandahar and outside Bagram airbase and Helmand Province on the verge of collapse reflect the tenacity of the Taliban and the fluid nature of battle. After repeated prodding by Kabul, New Delhi has finally responded to Kabul’s request to operationalising the military component of the Strategic Partnership Agreement. At the Heart of Asia conference, Ms Swaraj said that India would help in strengthening Afghan defence capabilities. This is the first time India has publicly declared its intent to arm Afghanistan. The first of four Mi 25 attack helicopters has been delivered to Kabul. This weekend, Prime Minister Narendra Modi may be in Kabul on his first visit to inaugurate the new Parliament building constructed by India.
The likely fragmentation of the Taliban will lead to inter-factional fighting and the weakening of their military capacity to the advantage of the Islamic State. It will delay the peace process if it ever takes off. Kabul and even Islamabad should prefer a cut to size Taliban for it to be realistically accommodated in a constitutional peace process.
Even so, Washington’s plan to make Kabul subservient to Islamabad to facilitate its early withdrawal is very dangerous. It will put the US’s frequently repeated chant of Afghanistan-led and Afghanistan-owned transition process on its head. As one Afghan told me: “Islamabad wants its relations with Kabul like the British: Control of defence and foreign policy.”