In Uttar Pradesh, Congress at Akhilesh’s mercy
The Congress should thank its stars that it has got more than 100 seats to contest in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly election. The party has been so marginalised in the State over the years that it has ended up as a bit player from being the pre-dominant political force since independence. The fact that it has forged an alliance with the ruling Samajwadi Party is only a confirmation of its second rank status. In the coming election, therefore, it will play second fiddle to the Samajwadi Party, with Akhilesh Yadav calling the shots. The Congress would not have received these many seats had the Chief Minister been less willing to accommodate it. But Akhilesh Yadav, after having sidelined the seniors in the party, including his father and party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav, and to a greater extent his powerful uncle Shivpal Yadav (ousted by the Chief Minister's faction as State party chief), did not want to take chances by going alone. He probably thinks the alliance will to a large extent dilute the negativity that has come into his party after the internal fracas. Had the Samajwadi Party been united in letter and spirit and Mulayam Singh Yadav had the final say, the tie-up with the Congress would probably not have taken place. But even so, the coalition almost did not happen, with the Congress pushing its luck too far, thinking that, given the ‘compromised’ position Akhilesh Yadav was, the Chief Minister would relent to its outrageous demand for close to 120 seats. Now that the deal has been sealed, it remains to be seen if individual advantages of the two partners will prevail in totality or their respective weaknesses will get the better of the sum of plus factors.
The Congress is virtually a spent force in Uttar Pradesh, and it desperately needed oxygen to survive. Akhilesh Yadav has come as a saviour — at least this is what some Congress leaders in the State and at the central leadership believe. The Congress calculates that it can gain from the alliance, just as it did in the Bihar Assembly election when it tied up with the Janata Dal (United) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal combine. But even after it did well in Bihar, nobody is saying today that the party has revived itself in that State. It still remains a marginal player and at the mercy of the big two. The same is likely to repeat in Uttar Pradesh. In fact, as many experienced leaders in the Congress will hold, unequal alliances end up further hurting the party. Such arrangements demoralise workers and reduce the space for expansion and consolidation. The Congress has seen this happen in Tamil Nadu, for instance, where it has been rendered as a near non-entity due to its alliances with regional outfits at various times. This is not to say that electoral understandings are always fatal. They can and do fetch immediate electoral gains, but at least national parties must bear in mind the costs such alliances demand.
Given that the Congress has conceded primacy in Uttar Pradesh, the only national party which is contesting the election as a lead player is the Bharatiya Janata Party. The BJP too has partners in the State, such as the Anupriya Patel-led Apna Dal, and a couple of others. But unlike the Congress, the BJP is in the driver's seat in the partnership.