India-Russia friendship needs some fresh air
The coming visit to India by Russian President Vladimir Putin is aimed at strengthening the decades-old relationship between the two countries. But while there is no way except forward for the ties to move, recent extraneous developments have the potential to recast engagements between Moscow and New Delhi, and we may see in the coming months a new sort of relationship which is less archaic, more dynamic and in keeping with the changing geo-political equations.
Mr Putin arrives at a time when the Russian economy has been severely hit by Western sanctions over the country's Ukraine policy; international oil prices have dropped, further impacting the tottering financial health of the country which is a major oil exporter; Russia has stepped up defence cooperation with Pakistan; India has drawn closer to the US, Europe, Japan and Australia; and when New Delhi is casting its net far and wide, beyond Russian suppliers, for its burgeoning defence needs. None of these is an indication of a rupture in Moscow-New Delhi ties, but taken together they definitely establish that neither Moscow nor India can take each other for granted.
Relationships have to be based on not just shared political ideologies (with Russia we don't share that) and strategic concerns (which we do to an extent), but also on shared economic interests. The latter has been amply evident in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's hectic foreign policy outreach. It is here that the India-Russia bilateral has the greatest scope to enhance — or fail. Given its weak economy as a result of the double whammy of sanctions and the dip in oil prices, Russia will be looking to participate in India's growth plans in sectors such as infrastructure, in the hope that the move will infuse into it some monetary life.
Since India holds the cards here, New Delhi will do well to engage with Moscow on realistic terms rather than be swayed by sentiment. After all, Russia has, despite knowing about India's reservations —though not expressed implicitly — taken the unprecedented step to finalise a defence cooperation deal with Islamabad. Although New Delhi need not lose sleep, the agreement is symbolic of change. While over the decades Russia and China drifted apart, the two are now often seen on the same page since they are thetargets of the West. If China is there, can Pakistan be far behindIJ The Russia-Pakistan defence agreement should be seen from this prism too.
It would be self-delusional to believe that the level of trust and bonhomie which existed between India and Russia decades ago, even a few years ago, remains as high. Apart from New Delhi's rising political, economic and social engagements with the US, Israel, Australia, Japan and many European nations, what has troubled Moscow-New Delhi ties in recent years is, among other things, the clearly-messed up deal for the aircraft carrier, then called Admiral Gorshkov. It arrived after several delays in deadlines and cost-overruns. There, there are technical issues with Russian military equipment and fighter aircraft, which led to avoidable friction. Still, it must be re-emphasised that despite the recent challenges, the bond remains strong. Both countries have to build on the strengths rather than allow adverse situations to have the final say.