Janata parivar plays its top card: Nitish Kumar
The political soap opera that is the Janata parivar in Bihar never fails to entertain. Just when it seemed like the whole project would collapse under the weight of bloated egos, personal rivalries and a negative agenda framed with an outdated narrative, it has pulled back from the edge at the last minute.
Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, who on Sunday night had threatened to quit the alliance, emerged, on Monday, as theparivar's consensus candidate for the top job in the event that it wins the Assembly election scheduled for later this year. This overnight development was made possible following an intervention from the Congress to convince Mr Nitish Kumar's arch rival-turned-coalition partner lalu Prasad to end his stubborn opposition.
The Congress is not yet a member of the Janata parivar but it has been playing a supporting role in the project, which aims to prevent the BJP from coming to power in Bihar. As such, it has little political capital in the State and is hardly a player of any significance. That the Congress was able to lean in on the RJD boss is, at best, testimony to the personal relationship between the two party chiefs.
From the Janataparivar's point of view, putting Mr Nitish Kumar at the forefont of the campaign is possibly one of the wisest decisions it has taken in recent months. Mr Nitish Kumar, who led Bihar from 2005 to 2014, before returning to the helm this February, has a stellar governance record that is matched by no other State leader within the Janata parivar and only a few outside. Also, among the coalition leaders, he is the only one that has any real political currency — the others, such as lalu Prasad and HD Deve Gowda, are all past their political prime. Even coalition chief Mulayam Singh Yadav is not exactly a force to reckon with in Bihar.
That said, there is still no guarantee that Mr Nitish Kumar will script a victory for the His good governance record (which the BJP rightly wants to share) notwithstanding, his recent political manoeuvrings have cast a shadow on his credibility. His decision to break his successful coalition with the BJP and later join hands with the RJD's lalu Prasad, whose goonda raj legacy he had worked so hard to dismantle, as well as his hostility towards Prime Minister Narendra Modi and fallout with former party colleague Jitan Ram Manjhi has not gone down well with the people. The electorate knows he is a capable leader but also sees him as an opportunistic politician.
From the BJP's point of view, Mr Nitish Kumar's elevation doesn't change the plot significantly but it does make theparivar a more challenging opponent. As of now, the BJP and the National Democratic Alliance that it leads have not announced a chief ministerial candidate but it will interesting to see if they are eventually compelled to do so. In the meantime, they will have to keep working on their own caste arithmetic, a crucial factor in Bihar elections.
There will be a certain amount of anti-BJP vote consolidation under the Janata parivar and the NDA will have to tackle that with its own bouquet of leaders from different castes. In this regard, the role of Mr Manjhi, who commands the substantial Mahadalit votebank and is currently a free element, could be a gamechanger.