It’s erroneous to conclude that the Prime Minister sustains his enormous popularity because he has no credible competition, and not because of his positives
After having exhausted all reasons, including some incredulous ones, for Narendra Modi’s sustained popularity among the people, his critics have settled on the following: The Prime Minister’s mass following is because of the lack of a credible Opposition challenge. This is a clever way of devaluing the positives and deviously hinting that, had there been an alternative — a real choice — Prime Minister Modi’s fault-lines would have been exposed and he would have stood discredited. The critics are completely wrong. And even if they are right, the absence of an option is not the Prime Minister’s fault. Besides, an alternative in the form of an opposition emerges if there is something tangible to be opposed. Only then can such opposition click with the people.
Why are the Modi-baiters wrongIJ Their thesis is flawed on the basis of fact. There indeed has been opposition to Modi, and it has been beaten fair and square in both electoral and perceptional terms. In the 2014 general election, there was the incumbent ruling Congress with a clean Prime Minister, a strong Congress president, an emerging youth icon who was unofficially the prime ministerial face of the party. In addition, the Congress had an alliance with a few parties. Yet it lost miserably, and has since then continued to lose.
In those days, it was stated, that the BJP could only shine before a discredited Congress and that Modi’s charisma failed before strong regional leaders and their parties. This theory gained ground after Odisha bucked the national trend and voted overwhelmingly in favour of Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal (BJD), and West Bengal went with Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress in the lok Sabha election. In the Assembly polls, Delhi preferred Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP); and Bihar opted for the regional combine of lalu Prasad’s Rashtriya Janata Dal and Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United). But this premise has had a short life.
In the Uttar Pradesh Assembly election earlier this year, the Modi magic trumped strong regional formations such as the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party. Earlier, in the Odisha local body elections, the BJP gained considerable ground at the expense of the BJD and is now undeniably the main opposition in the State for all practical purposes. In West Bengal too, the party has risen swiftly, increasing its vote-share with every election and pushing the left and the Congress to the third and fourth positions respectively. In Delhi, it ground the AAP to dust in the municipal corporation polls and in an Assembly by-election. In short, regional parties and leaders too have begun ceding ground to the Modi charisma. This is work in progress still — Tamil Nadu remains a challenge, for instance. But the writing is on the wall.
There is a sense of desperation and panic in the opposition ranks, and it has led to recurring calls for a ‘united opposition’ to take on the Modi juggernaut. By itself this is an admission that individually, opposition parties simply do not have the strength to confront the Prime Minister and his party. It has also resulted in strange excuses on their part for their declining fortunes. The first is that the electronic voting machines have played truant — lakhs of them and all at the same time! This is a fig leaf that does not deserve an elaboration even. The second is that because the Prime Minister is good at marketing his image, he has been able to mislead the people into believing in him. This explanation was most recently forwarded by senior Congress leader and former Union Minister Prithviraj Chavan. Congress and regional party leaders too have an image, so what has stopped them from marketing itIJ Truth be told, you can market a bad product for a short while but eventually it will collapse on its own failing. Three years after Modi assumed prime ministership, his personal popularity ratings are very high — according to some surveys it’s higher than even in 2014. By contrast, the rating of his rivals, including Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi, has been declining. According to an opinion poll telecast by a leading news channel, Modi is seen as the most popular Prime Minister the country has had — Indira Gandhi comes second and Atal Bihari Vajpayee is placed in the third spot. Clearly, the product hasn’t failed, and is showing little signs of failing either, given that the above mentioned survey (and other such exercises) indicate a clean sweep for the Modi-led alliance in the 2019 lok Sabha election.
The Opposition needs to realise the real reasons for its continuing downfall and the BJP’s consistent rise. It’s not the EVMs, and it’s also not effective marketing (had the latter been so potent, the BJP-led NDA would not have faced defeat in 2002 after launching the ambitious image-building ‘India Shining’ campaign). It’s certainly not the social polarisation of the kind Modi’s rivals have more recently latched on to. A level of voter polarisation has indexed happened that has gone in the BJP’s favour, but polarisations have taken place in the past too — especially of the minority kind in States such as Uttar Pradesh, and which benefitted the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party. Caste and class divisions have been common, except that when the BJP did not gain from them, they were considered innocuous. The Opposition’s misery boils down to two reasons: Ineffective leadership and uninspiring political narrative.
Bluntly put, Rahul Gandhi has been a failure and leaders such as Mamata Banerjee, Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati are seen as parochial appeasers. They remain mass leaders, for sure, but their constituents are slipping from their grip. And yet they continue to practise and profess politics that has become dated and makes voters seethe with fury. A 60-plus year old leader has entered the hearts and minds of the country’s youth as a near iconic figure, whereas the 40-somethings languish as wannabes. While Modi sets the agenda — even for the Opposition! — these leaders are reduced to pitifully responding. The sorry state of the country’s oldest political party is such that one of its senior leaders close to the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty visits a neighbouring country and appeals there for help to oust the Prime Minister of his own nation. Such is the fright that Modi has put into the the Opposition hearts that Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav, and Mamata Banerjee and Sitaram Yechury, are willing to embrace each other. Yet they exclaim, in faux confidence, that they are not scared of Modi.
There is nothing to be scared of a democratically elected Prime Minister, of course. The Opposition needs to get strong and challenge the Government when the latter goes astray. But none can help if the rivals are determined to self-destruct. Modi’s strength lies in the support of the people; it’s this constituent the Opposition must re-connect with.
(The writer is Opinion Editor, The Pioneer)