JIT team’s findings have dwindled the fortunes of Pakistan Prime Minister
The Pakistani Supreme Court-ordered Joint Investigative Team's (JIT) findings into the internationally leaked Panama documents, which found gross disparities in the actual income and wealth of the Prime Minister and his family members, have come as a heavy blow for Nawaz Sharif. It was just sheer luck that Sharif could escape from being ousted from power last time over his alleged involvement in the Panama Papers irregularities. At that point in time, the Supreme Court did not have sufficient evidence to remove him from office. But this time, the JIT team has made grave allegations against him and his family members. It has recommended the filing of a corruption case against them and accused them of criminal conspiracy for having presented fake documents to the probe agency. Accusations have made matters worse for Sharif.
The matter is back with the Supreme Court, which is yet to take a decision. Of course, Sharif has put up a brave front and has decided to fight the JIT's charges. But what is sure is that Sharif's fate hangs in balance and this time he may not get a breather as his position has weakened and become unpredictable. The Army too may not be of much help this time. Members of the Inter-Services Intelligence were among those who comprised the probe team. Clearly, Sharif has two options now. First, he could either continue as the head of Government and fight the charges tooth and nail. But no democratic country would want to be headed by a Prime Minister who has been shrouded in corruption charges. Second, Sharif can step down and fight the charges. Ideally, this should be the way forward because eventually if he gets cleared of the charges, he can seek a return to office as the law permits. Whatever be it, it is the Army which stands on a dominant footing now, and this development is bound to give them an even greater upper hand.
Regardless of the outcome, Sharif’s political authority has been dented. He has lost bargaining power vis-à-vis the Army. Overall, his position has weakened, both politically and morally. This also means that there are chances that the Army may assume the driver's seat — like it had done in 1993, when Army intervention had forced the then President, Ghulam Ishaq Khan, to resign. Sharif has been trying to grapple with the situation by making statements to get into the good books of the Army. But these tactics may not work. While the developments are an internal affair of Pakistan, they have a bearing on India-Pakistan relations. New Delhi will be watching the developments carefully. It is a fact that Sharif had not been committed to forging strong relations with New Delhi and had failed to capitalise on his political goodwill to improve ties. But India at least had someone to talk to. India will face bigger challenges in terms of diplomacy and in combating terrorism if Sharif is shown the door.