Though State-level factors determine the upcoming round of Assembly elections, the polls will still be seen as a vote on the Modi Government at the Centre. As for the BJP, the party has little to lose
Once again another round of elections is upon us, and when the results from these four States and one Union Territory — Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Assam and Puducherry — come in, there will be an overdose of analysis on the implications of these results for the two main national parties and the principal regional outfits in the fray.
It is now well established that the voters in each State make a clear distinction between a parliamentary and State Assembly election and vary their preferences according to their assessment of the performance of a party at the national or regional level.
For example, the voters in Karnataka voted out the Bharatiya Janata Party in the State Assembly election in 2013, but gave the party a massive mandate in the 2014 lok Sabha poll. Almost the reverse of this happened in Delhi and Bihar, where the people voted wholeheartedly for a Narendra Modi Government at the Centre in 2014, but opted for Governments headed by Arvind Kejriwal and Nitish Kumar respectively in their States later.
In other words, State-level factors determine the outcome of State Assembly polls. Yet, there is no running away from the fact that these frequent electoral bouts in some part of the country or the other every year, tends to undermine the confidence of those who run the Union Government and also adversely affect governance.
This is true for those who head the Governments in the States as well. Although a Chief Minister has a clear mandate to govern the state for five years, if his party does poorly in a lok Sabha poll mid-way through his term (Nitish Kumar, Bihar; Akhilesh Yadav, Uttar Pradesh; Tarun Gogoi, Assam; in 2014), they will be at the receiving end of many taunts and barbs from all and sundry and dissidents will spring up from many corners in the party’s headquarters. All this is bound to sap the energy of those voted to office either at the Centre or the States.
Governance also takes a hit because the moment the Election Commission announces the poll schedule, the Model Code of Conduct kicks in and virtually puts the lid on development. The code prohibits both the Union and State Governments from launching new schemes or projects in the election-bound States until the declaration of results. This brings administration in these States to a halt for at least three months.
Coming back to the present round of elections, the BJP, which is the ruling party at the Centre, has much to gain and little to lose in this round because it has never been in power in any of these States. Yet, if the party does not do well, its opponents will declare that “the Modi magic has evaporated”!
This is the burden that an incumbent Government at the federal level has to carry, every time a State goes to polls. Opinion polls suggest that the BJP is a serious contender for power in Assam and that it could dislodge the Congress. If this happens, it would be a major breakthrough for the party in the north-eastern region of the country.
The party has also improved its vote share in some of these States in recent years as it has in Kerala and West Bengal, where it suddenly became a party to reckon with in 2014 when it secured 10.50 and 17 per cent of the votes respectively.
On the other hand, there is much at stake for the Congress in these elections. It is engaged in a bitter fight for retention of power in the two big States in its fold —Kerala and Assam — and the tidings from both States are not too rosy for the party at the moment. In Kerala, opinion polls put the left Front ahead of the incumbent Congress-led coalition. Also, internal squabbles and scandals have done much damage to the party’s image in the State and it does not have a credible national leader to retrieve lost ground.
In Assam, incumbent Congress Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi is fighting with his back to the wall. Should the party suffer electoral setbacks in these States, it will alter the country’s internal political geography much to the disadvantage of the Congress.
Among the other States where elections are on, is West Bengal. Here, the Congress has, in a sense, already conceded defeat by deciding to strike an alliance with its bitter rival of 50 years — the left Front! Those who have followed the politics of West Bengal over the last half a century could never have imagined that a day would come when the Congress would team up with the Marxists to fight a common enemy.
This came about after the voters gave both the Congress and the Marxists some shock treatment in 2014. The Congress secured just 9.69 per cent and won four of the 42 seats. The left Front was decimated. Though it had around 30 per cent of the vote, it won just two seats. On the other hand, the BJP registered a strong presence in the State securing 17 per cent of the votes and two seats. The Trinamool Congress was the big winner securing 40 per cent of the vote and 34 seats.
The outcome of this poll appears to have forced a re-think both in the Congress and the left Front. They now have an electoral alliance in most of the seats in order to aggregate their strengths and offer a worthwhile challenge to the Trinamool Congress. While the compulsions of the left parties are obvious, it is indeed sad to see the mighty Congress clutching at straws after its dismal showing in the last lok Sabha election. Incidentally, the two have got together in this State to save the “secular fabric”. If this be so, then want conclusions do we draw from the battle that is on in Kerala between the twoIJ
In Tamil Nadu, the Congress has never been able to stage a come back after the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam gave it a knock out punch in 1967. Since then the party has been riding piggy back on one or other of the Dravida parties.
Whatever the outcome, this round of elections reminds us of the vicious cycle of elections that we are trapped in. We must lay the blame for this at the door of Indira Gandhi, who was responsible for ending the system of simultaneous elections to the lok Sabha and all State Assemblies when she called a snap lok Sabha poll in 1971. Can we put Humpty-Dumpty together againIJ