The Government repeatedly talks of strengthening our defence forces to meet present and potential challenges, but it provides little by way of funds and focused direction so that the military can fully achieve its purpose
After four months in office, chief of Army Staff Gen Bipin Rawat, who was appointed after superseding two senior Generals, has made his first strategic statement, directed at Union Minister for Finance Arun Jaitley, who is also currently the stopgap Defence Minister a second time. Releasing the United Services Institute’s Strategic Yearbook 2017, Gen Rawat said the Armed Forces were not getting adequate funds for modernisation as spending on defence was regarded as a burden when military power and economic growth should be conjoined being two tenets of national power. Belying expectations and promises that the BJP-led Government would invest in building a strong military, the Government allocated minimal monies for defence modernisation, the amount for 2017-18 being one of the lowest including the budget at 1.63 per cent of GDP when national growth has averaged eight per cent. What was alarming is the capital allocation for modernisation which in real terms saw a five per cent decrease over last year and was insufficient to meet even committed liabilities. This year, the revenue amount is also likely to fall short which includes salaries, allowances and military stores. The crowding of one-rank-one-pension (OROP) and the anomalous award of the 7th Pay Commission have put pressure on capital account.
On taking office, Gen Rawat had said: “We are tasked to be prepared for a two-front war”, but did not mention the iron-brothers’ (China and Pakistan) likely operational collusion during hostilities. Given the critical equipment voids, the Armed Forces will be hard put to secure an advantage even on one front, leave alone two. While India’s current defence expenditure is $50.9 billion, China’s defence budget is $153 billion with state of art weaponry. It spends nearly $160 billion on internal security compared to our $15 billion. It should be no surprise that police and paramilitaries in J&K are unable to quell unrest and resort to pellet guns for crowd control.
In 1991, when the first tranche of economic reforms was unveiled, Finance Minister Manmohan Singh had warned the Armed Forces about shrinkages in budget which led to Kargil and Gen Ved Malik famously saying: “We will fight with what we have.” And he was fighting a quarter-front war. One wonders why the junior Minister in the External Affairs Ministry, Gen VK Singh, who as Army chief, made all the right noises in 2013 about critical hollowness in operational inventory, is now silent about the declining strength and stature of the military. Most service chiefs lament over the mismatch between mission and resources on the eve of their retirement. Air Chief Marshal Arup Raha, in the perfunctory appointment of the Chairman Chiefs of Staff Committee instead of the long promised Chief of Defence Staff, made some inconsequential comments on India engaged in building only deterrent capabilities, when he should have expressed his unhappiness about declining fighter squadrons and the perilous state of combat capabilities. The real deterrent to speak out is post retirement plums.The $12 billion single-engine fighter deal necessitated by the arbitrary slashing of MMRCA Rafale programme is missing strategic partners. The fighter strength of 30 squadrons in 2017 will drop to 28 in 2018, and then nosedive after the MiG fleet begins decommissioning in 2019. While the Air Force will add one Sukhoi squadron (whose role in not clear) annually, the first Rafale aircraft will arrive only in 2019; it’ll take 36 months for the remaining 35 aircraft to materialise. Defence Minister Jaitley told the Air Force Commanders conference last month that his ministry would fast-track the fighter programme.
Navy chief Admiral Sunil lanba wants to expand the Navy’s operational footprint in the Indian Ocean Region and be the stabilising force, the first responder and net security provider — all with ageing mine sweepers (not one added since 1988), dwindling submarines (14 against 24 needed) , uncertainties over two or three aircraft carrier platforms and continuing coastal surveillance tasks post-Mumbai, when one of his predecessors, Admiral Arun Prakash is starkly and repeatedly warning about China’s encirclement plans which Jaitley at the Naval Commanders conference last month called the “expanding presence of extra-regional powers in the IOR”. The Navy has plans to assemble an armada of 212 warships and 458 aircraft and helicopters by 2027, compared to the present 140 warships and 235 aircraft. China began its aircraft carrier programme only in 2012 and already has one platform operational.
The country’s sword arm is still the Army. Although only the Army got a 10 per cent increase in the modernisation account, its plans and programmes are nowhere near take-off. Of the 24 modernisation schemes, 11 are critical — procurement of artillery, air defence assets and helicopters which are in various stages of acquisition. Infantry modernisation has been in a coma. Rifleman Bhoop Singh has stones and bullets fired at him in J&K. The coffins at Palam contain mostly infantrymen. The strategic switch to indigenisation has decelerated modernisation as deals worth Rs 50,000 crore are stuck for want of strategic partners in the Make in India transformation. Mismanagement of defence stemming from lack of jointness in defence planning and procurement has prevented the military from acquiring its full potential.
The Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence recently noted that this year’s allocation for the Navy’s capital account is around Rs 18,000 crore whereas committed liabilities are Rs 22,000 crore, which reflects the dismal status of capital procurement and ‘lack of seriousness’ required to meet defence needs. Finance Minister Jaitley when asked about the historic low in funding defence modernisation replied: “If Defence Ministry can speed up its acquisition mechanism, they can get as much money as they want.” Why can’t Defence Minister Jaitley fast-track procurement instead of ‘underproviding because they can’t spend’ or as in the past, obstructing spending to withdraw on average Rs 8,000 crore to to Rs 10,000 crore to balance the fiscal deficit. Spending on the poor wisely is prudent and also fetches votes in the Government’s singular drive to capture rule in all States. But without strong security, such dreams are like a house of cards.
Defence is too serious a business to be repeatedly allotted as an add-on to even a trusted, loyal and capable colleague of Prime Minister Narenda Modi. Defence Ministry requires urgent reform and new ideas to rejuvenate it. For Modi to realise his dream of a New India, he must take charge of defence, like President Xi Jinping personally directs the military high command and is intensely involved in PlA defence reforms. like J&K Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti said, only Modi can do it.
(The writer is a retired Major General of the Indian Army and a strategic affairs expert)