Nawaz Sharif has always had a troublesome relationship with his Army chiefs. This time around, however, his differences with the military have arisen quicker, and the Prime Minister seems to have lost the plot already
When Mr Nawaz Sharif was first elected to power in 1991, one expected that unlike Benazir Bhutto, he would have a cosy relationship with the Army establishment. He had, after all, been brought into politics and patronised by General Zia-ul Haq. He was voted to power as part of an Islamist alliance put together and funded by General Aslam Beg and ISI chief lieutenant General Asad Durrani. But, after having an uneasy relationship with his first Army chief General Asif Nawaz, Mr Sharif was unceremoniously thrown out of office by the succeeding Army chief, General Waheed Kakkar. The same drama was enacted during his second term. Mr Sharif forced his first Army chief, General Jehangir Karamat, to quit, for suggesting the constitution of a National Security Council. He was then incarcerated by General Pervez Musharraf, following differences over who should take responsibility for the Kargil fiasco.
Barely a year in office in this third term, Mr Sharif now has an uneasy and even hostile relationship with his personal choice for Army chief and namesake, General Raheel Sharif. The attack on the Indian Consulate in Herat was executed on the eve of the his arrival in New Delhi, for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s swearing in. It drew international attention as having been executed by the lashkar-e-Tayyeba, with the backing of the ISI. It is no secret that for two generations Hafiz Saeed has been patronised by the Sharif family. The attack was a message to the world, to India and to Mr Sharif himself that even Hafiz Saeed would side with the Army, despite his continuing to receive funds from Mr Shahbaz Sharif. India should realistically realise that sponsorship of terrorism on its territory and in Afghanistan is managed by Gen Sharif, not Mr Sharif.
Mr Sharif’s differences with the military have arisen quicker than in his previous two terms. Within a year of his assuming office, differences escalated over the house arrest and trial of Gen Musharraf, on charges including his suspension of the Constitution. When the Sindh High Court cleared the way for Gen Musharraf to leave the country, Mr Sharif immediately responded by an appeal to the Supreme Court. Any conviction of Gen Musharraf would not only reduce the stature of the Army nationally and internationally, but also serve as a deterrent against future coups — something the Army will just not tolerate. To add insult to injury, Mr Sharif was backing the influential print and visual media giant of Pakistan, the Jang Group, in its tirade against Army excesses in Balochistan and its campaign alleging that the ISI had attempted to kill its star TV anchor Hamid Mir. The Army responded with a programme of intimidation of the media.
Another cause of friction between Mr Sharif and the Army has been on measures to deal with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, once a major ‘asset’ of the ISI. With political and parliamentary backing, Mr Sharif decided to commence dialogue with the TTP and a ceasefire was put in place. The Army was unhappy as it sought to wreak revenge for the Cardinal Sin of the TTP, in killing a Major General. While negotiations between the TTP and Government interlocutors were underway, the Army engineered an escalation of tensions with the TTP, compelling Mr Sharif to end negotiations. Even before Mr Sharif could make a formal announcement, the Army proceeded with a massive assault in North Waziristan, using air power (F16 fighters), artillery and mechanised infantry. It is evident that the targets of military wrath are exclusively the TTP and their Uzbek and Uighur allies. Predictably, the Haqqani network has been spared in this assault as they remain allies of the Pakistani military to destabilise and overthrow the Government in Kabul.
Around 5,00,000 hapless Pashtuns have fled into neighbouring tribal areas in the wake of the military offensive. To add insult to injury, these Pashtuns have been denied entry into the Punjab and Sindh Provinces, where they could find refuge and employment. More than 70,000 Pashtuns have also fled into the neighbouring Khost and Paktia Provinces of Afghanistan. Mr Sharif sent Pashtun leader Mehmood Khan Achakzai to meet President Hamid Karzai and discuss the border situation, amidst Afghan allegations of violations of Afghanistan’s borders by the Pakistani Army. This was followed by a visit of Afghan National Security Adviser Rangin Dadfar Spanta to Pakistan. President Karzai has reportedly insisted that he will cooperate with Pakistan only if it targets all terrorists without discrimination, eliminates terrorist hideouts, ends shelling of Afghan territory and joins him in coordinating anti-terrorism efforts with “important regional nations like India and China”.
It is evident that Mr Sharif has little control over what Gen Sharif is doing on Pakistan’s borders with Afghanistan or India. The impact of the Army’s onslaught in North Waziristan has been described vividly by Mr Rustam Shah Mohmand, a Pashtun, who was earlier Pakistan’s Ambassador to Kabul and Interior (Home) Secretary. Mr Mohmand noted that instead or attacking positions held by the TTP, the army “ordered all towns — densely populated settlements — to be vacated, forcing hundreds of thousands of civilians to move out, not knowing where they would be headed. The order was preceded by relentless air bombardment and non-stop curfew in towns and villages. The civilians who perished in the bombardment by fighter jets had to buried after funeral prayers”. Mr Mohmand’s comments are only a small part of the misery and suffering of hundreds of thousands of hapless Pashtun tribesmen, women and small children, fleeing to safe havens across the tribal areas.
Mr Sharif’s leadership is also being challenged, at the instigation of the Army, by rivals like Messrs Imran Khan, Shujaat Hussain, Pervaiz Elahi and the dubious cleric Tahirul Qadri. In his second year, the hapless Mr Sharif already appears a ‘lame duck’ who is in no position to check or influence the Army’s links with terrorist groups operating against India and Afghanistan. He would, however, retain some authority to promote economic, trade and energy cooperation with India. President Karzai has spelt out in writing what he expects Pakistan to do on terrorism and dialogue with Afghanistan. India should do likewise, and propose hosting a trilateral breakfast meeting of the leaders of India, Afghanistan and Pakistan, at the next summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation. To get Gen Sharif involved, India could propose subsequent meetings between Army chiefs of the three countries to discuss and measures to end cross-border terrorism.
(The accompanying visual is of Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Army chief General Raheel Sharif at the Pakistan Military Academy in Kakul. Photo courtesy: veooz)