If exit polls in Tripura, Nagaland and Meghalaya have got it right, it's a BJP breakthrough
There was a time not so long ago when leading psephologists, analysts and other manner of General Election predictors on television, as they went over the electoral map of India allotting seats to various political parties State by State, would come to the 25 lok Sabha seats in the North-East (including Assam) and dump them pretty much routinely in the Congress basket. Indian politics has come a long way in a comparatively short period of time since then. The exit polls for the Assembly elections to Tripura, Nagaland and Meghalaya are out and, with the health warning that these are not the actual results for which we have to wait till March 3, they seem to suggest a seminal breakthrough for the BJP is in the offing which augurs well for its re-election campaign for the forthcoming General Election too.
In Tripura, the Congress' dalliance with the CPI-M at the Centre over the past two decades and its leftwards lurch under the presidentship of Sonia Gandhi ensured that there was a vacuum in the anti-Marxist opposition space. Especially, given Manik Sarkar's multiple terms as Chief Minister have not translated into development on the ground or addressed the desires of an aspirational young population, which is much more in sync mainstream India than in the past. If the exit polls are right, and two of them gave the State to the BJP while one had the BJP and CPI-M in a dead heat, the saffron party has pulled off in three years of sustained organisation-building and agitprop what the Congress had been unable and/or unwilling to do in 25. Nagaland also looks like a win for the BJP-Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) alliance with both exit polls conducted in the State giving it an edge over the ruling Naga People's Front (NPP). The exit poll predictions, if they turn out correct, will also bring an RSS-affiliate proposed Naga peace plan that has gained some traction and sparked a bit of a row centrestage. Meghalaya has the exit polls giving neither of the three main contesting parties — Congress, BJP and the PA Sangma-founded National People's Party which is led by the late leader's son Conrad — a clear majority in the 60-member House. But two of the three polls have Conrad Sangma's party emerging as the single largest and in a position to form the Government with the help of the BJP, which is expected to finish a strong third just behind the Congress.
These exit poll predictions, if they hold good come counting day, will mean that for the first time in the history of independent India, the periphery has shown the desire to shed its ‘separateness' which was assiduously promoted by ruling dispensations in New Delhi in the past and become part of the national mainstream. That fellow citizens, who are proud of their tribal identity and their religion (predominantly Christian) in these States, are willing to engage with an India where all are equal, none appeased and folk multiculturalism is celebrated, is good news for all Indians. If it wins, though, the responsibility will squarely be the BJP's to ensure zero tolerance for the lumpen behaviour of the single-issue loonies and vigilantes operating in their sphere of influence.