Delhi, Colombo have a chance to course correct
If Prime Minister Narendra Modi does indeed visit Sri lanka only weeks after the Sri lankan President arrives in India for his foreign tour, as recent reports suggest, it will offer a crucial opportunity for some much-needed course correction in the India-Sri lanka bilateral. The very fact that, if the visit works out as planned, Mr Modi will be the first Indian Prime Minister to visit the island nation in 27 years speaks volumes about how the two nations, which have a shared civilisational history going back 2,500 years, have drifted apart a bit.
In recent years, the relationship somewhat stagnated for several reasons. On the Indian side, coalition compulsions tied the hands of the Congress-led UPA regime which neither had the gumption nor the numbers to challenge the parochial politics of its Tamil allies. On the Sri lankan side, former President Mahinda Rajapaksa's welcoming of Chinese investments in his country had caused a lot of heartburn in New Delhi. Also, over the years, as India struggled with its own troubles at home, it lost much of its strategic space in Sri lanka.
Expectedly, this space was filled by an ascendant China which was looking to increase its footprint in the region and, importantly, had the resources to make a mark. But the Beijing factor notwithstanding, the change of Government in Colombo and New Delhi allows both countries to close the chapter on their not-so-pleasant past and make a fresh start.
From Prime Minister Modi's point of view, he will be able to travel to Sri lanka, including to the Northern Province, without the baggage of Tamil politics weighing him down. Also, as the head of a Government that has such a vast mandate, he will have the political heft to script a new chapter in bilateral ties. From Sri lankan President Maithripala Sirisena's point of view, he will be able to engage with the Indian Prime Minister from a point of relative strength for two reasons.
First, to some extent, he enjoys the support of the lankan Tamil parties which had rallied in favour of the now ruling coalition during the presidential election. Though the official positions of Mr Sirisena's Government on contentious Tamil issues are not all that different from those of the Rajapaksa Government, today there is a sense of optimism that the new administration may do more for the minority community. In this context, the recent appointment of a Tamil jurist as the country's Chief Justice is a step in the right direction. Second, President Sirisena is also considered to be more pro-India, and also more pro-America, than his predecessor, who was perceived as pro-China.
However, this must not be taken to assume that under President Sirisena, all Chinese influence, not to mention millions of dollars worth investments, will suddenly disappear from the island nation. China has struck deep roots in Sri lanka and the two countries have strong ties. India can't dislodge that relationship but only hope to recover it own position in Colombo's scheme of things. Also, it is important to note that in both cases — Tamil politics and foreign policy — it is really a matter of perception that is in favour of President Sirisena. The new lankan Government hasn't really been in power long enough to show how it will implement its plans and promises. That said, the positive optics are also welcome.