Oli regime on weak wicket; instability looms
It is now only a matter of time before the KP Sharma Oli Government in Nepal is shown the door by the Unified Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), which presently backs the regime. The UCPN(M) has for the moment decided not to pull the rug from under Oli's feet, but only because it is unsure about the legalities of moving a no-confidence motion. As soon as the issue is sorted out, the incumbent Government will fall. This is more so because the Nepali Congress, now in opposition, is also determined to see the end of the Oli dispensation. The Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda'-led communist party has accused the Government of failing to implement the new Constitution and also of not addressing the grievances of the agitating Madhesi population. This is interesting because the Madhesi leadership has a problem precisely with certain provisions of the Constitution that it believes betray the aspirations of the Madhesi community. In other words, with the Constitution and the Madhesi grievances at loggerheads, it requires deft balancing to resolve the two simultaneously. It's a statecraft Oli does not possess. He has singularly failed to reach out to the protesting Madhesi leaders, despite claiming time and again that his Government is engaged with them. Perhaps even the Madhesi leadership has known all along that Oli is only a short-term arrangement. There have been other failings (perceived and real) as well. The Oli regime is seen as been inefficient in the post-earthquake relief work despite massive assistance that had poured in from abroad, primarily India.
Over and above all of these is the politics of Kathmandu, which has taken a turn towards instability in recent months. ‘Prachanda' is eager to have another shot at prime ministership his last and only tenure had lasted less than a year and ended in the aftermath of a series of measures he took to rile India and distance those who had backed him to the post. He believes now is the best opportunity that has come his way in years, given that the Nepali Congress has been relegated to the opposition bench and faces a sort of leadership vacuum. But, if he does re-occupy the chair, he will face much the same problems that have troubled the others. In fact, the UCPN(M) leader's position on the Madhesi agitation has been ambivalent; his party supports the Madhesis’ demands but had also endorsed the Constitution which left the Madhesi leaders (his partners in politics over the last few years) fuming. This ambivalence had also led to the departure from the party of one of its tallest leaders and former Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai though it must be added that Bhattarai had had his own political ambitions as well in deciding to split. The state of flux in Kathmandu is unfortunate because Nepal faces many daunting challenges and needs a strong and stable Government at the helm. The earlier the uncertainty ends the better it will be for Nepal and its neighbourhood.