The person to look out for will be the successor to General Kayani who, in November this year completes two full terms as the Chief of Army Staff. The transition will indicate the shape civil-military relationship will take
Pakistan has made an impressive democratic transition from one elected Government to another, subduing jihadist violence and competing interests of Sharia’h and democracy. Will third-time Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, with a comfortable Punjabi majority in Parliament and with Provinces ruled by Opposition parties, be able to bring a weakened military under civilian control to turn Pakistan into a more normal stateIJ lately, commentators in Pakistan have been saying that the Army is weakened and no longer interested in governance; the days of military coups are over and the Army’s plate is full with numerous internal security challenges. Perhaps the fate of former President and Chief of Army Staff, General Pervez Musharraf, and a normal succession in the appointment of the next COAS when Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani retires in November this year, will indicate which way the civil-military balance can go.
It is an enduring mystery why Gen Musharraf returned to Pakistan from his Edgware Road flat in london with a working office in Dubai. Former Inter-Services Intelligence chief, lt Gen Shuja Pasha, had warned him against it but the commando in Musharraf took the gamble, misreading public outrage for sympathy and support. Being disqualified from contesting in the polls, he was slapped with court cases ranging from treason to assassination of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and Baloch leader Akbar Bugti. Jailed in his Islamabad farmhouse, the ebullient General is biding his time with Cohiba cigars and Irish coffee. A fellow Mohajir and former COAS, Gen Aslam Beg said, “Beyond a certain level the military will not tolerate insult.” Gen Kayani too warned about respecting the uniform, which conforms to the latest Pew poll that showed 77 per cent of Pakistanis trust the Army.
The only General to be publicly humiliated was AAK Niazi who surrendered in East Pakistan and on return suffered the ignominy of being paraded in his village mounted on an ass wearing a garland of shoes. The courts may go through the motions of a trial, finding a legal impasse for want of evidence. The Saudi royals who are the most efficient intervenors in Pakistan’s domestic politics, have worked out a safe passage for the General to be with his ailing mother in Dubai. The Musharraf saga will likely end with Mian Sharif being unable to avenge his own humiliation at the hands of the General. He has clearly said that he makes a distinction between the errant General and the Army whose creation he is in the first place; and relies on religious parties for his support base.
Addressing cadets at the Kakul Academy in January this year, Gen Kayani said, “Since Islam is the basis of creation of Pakistan it can never be separated from the state.” In other words, religion and state are inter-dependent. The Army has arrogated to itself, the title of being ‘Protectors of the Ideological and Territorial Frontiers of Pakistan’. These remarks were made by Gen Kayani before the election, and according to Asian Human Rights, he indirectly encouraged people to vote for religious fundamentalist parties. It noted that Gen Kayani had to be prosecuted for violating his oath (Article 240 of the Constitution) — “I will not engage myself in any political activity whatsoever...”
On the day of Prime Minister Sharif’s swearing-in on June 5, Gen Kayani’s motorcade was given precedence over that of the Prime Minister’s. Soon after, Mr Sharif spoke to Indian journalists very warmly about India and on his plans of returning India-Pakistan relations to the lahore days. Gen Kayani in his briefing to him reportedly advised that he go slow. Gen Kayani’s carefully choreographed statements indicate that the Army will continue to call the shots on India, Afghanistan, the United States and the nuclear assets. It is interesting that Mr Sharif has kept the Foreign and Defence portfolios with him, appointing the veteran Sartaj Aziz (Kargil fame) as his National Security Adviser.
The person to look out for will be the successor to Gen Kayani who, in November this year will have completed two full terms as the COAS. The person tipped to replace him is lt Gen Rashad Mahmood, currently Chief of General Staff. He is a Baloch Regiment officer who has served with Gen Kayani in the ISI. He is also the senior-most in the line. lt Gen Tariq Khan, Armoured Corps, who is the Mangala Corp Commander and who excelled himself in Swat, is the dark horse. On whether Gen Kayani will force his choice on Mr Sharif by advocating the seniority principle, which the latter breached twice earlier, we will have to wait to see. But put your money on Rashad Mahmood
The reason why the Army is disinclined to manage the affairs of the state is due to the deepening crisis in the internal security situation. During the Kakul speech, Gen Kayani said that the Taliban and other anti-Pakistan terrorist groups were the biggest threat facing the country. To Pakistan Army’s Green Book, which is the repository of all strategical and tactical thought, sub-conventional war has now been added as an operational priority, though very belatedly.
Unfortunately the Army’s heart is not in counter-insurgency and very little worthwhile operational experience has been garnered from the operations launched so far. There is little indication that the Army will be changing gear to use of minimum force from its current application of kinetic force. The Army believes in using all fire-power at its disposal, which includes the Air Force, Artillery and helicopter gunships as preparatory bombardment to ground operations. The collateral damage is huge, not to mention the evacuation of millions of residents.
The tasks facing the Army are mind-boggling: From dealing with militancy to sectarianism to religious extremism. What is worrying is the extent of radicalisation of the military. Surprisingly the Navy and Air Force are more radicalised than the Army. Insider collusion in the attacks against Army, Navy and Air Force installations have demonstrated this very clearly. Some de-radicalisation programmes are underway, especially through the screening of senior officers before promotion. Pakistan’s existence is thanks to America, Army and Allah.
Altering the behaviour of the Army is at present not as pressing a mission for the Prime Minister of Pakistan as altering the behaviour of the power transmission lines in the country to pull Pakistan out of the dark. The rest, as people in lahore are saying, Allah (not khuda) hafiz.