US has a good line in evocative phrases on Pak terror but India needs action
US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson's assertion in New Delhi that Pakistan's pet terrorists are ready to bite the hand that feeds them and threaten its stability, follows his predecessor Hillary Clinton on the issue some years ago — “if you keep snakes in your backyard don't expect them only to bite your neighbours.” While the sentiment is appreciated, and welcome, New Delhi is clearly looking for substantive action to match these fine words and is not holding its breath for that to come to fruition in the immediate future because of three major factors.
First, the presence of US troops and special forces in Afghanistan makes taking any drastic action against Islamabad very problematic given Washington's dependence on Pakistan for its supply lines and other logistical support including cross-Durand line access. Geography being what it is, and with the Trump Administration having ratcheted up the pressure on Iran which shares the other major land border with Afghanistan, there is no help coming from that quarter for sure. So, the Americans have in effect limited their own choices. And talk of using Central Asian republics proximate to Afghanistan as a base for operations and logistical support instead of Pakistan has remained just that. Secondly, also emanating from the Trump Administration's stand on Iran, the US deep state still seems convinced that its policy of using the two Sunni-majority states it calls its allies, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, to keep a Shia Iran in check is the right one. Which means that 25 years after the end of the Cold War, Pakistan still figures as an important player in the American scheme of things. lastly, the immediate focus of American foreign policy in Asia is clearly on East Asia where the North Korean crisis shows no signs of abating and US preparedness — or the of lack of it — vis-à-vis a continually rising China. West Asia with its oil reserves and large population susceptible to radicalisation is the next major worry for Washington. South Asia gets a look in, unless there is a major incident, only after that.
There is, however, an opportunity for India in the accession of Donald Trump to the US presidency to try and achieve a breakthrough for the very reason he is criticised by most of the world — his so-called insular, America-first focus on domestic political and economic issues with an approach towards foreign policy that one former India diplomat summed up as “outsourcing and deal-making… he's not interested in institution-building.” So, the thing to do would be to encourage Trump to revert to his earlier position of a pull-out of American ground troops from Afghanistan in a planned manner having put enough moderates in positions of armed authority there,while retaining its special forces/covert capabilities and getting Central Asian bases into play. A US crackdown on Pakistan in tandem with regional allies including India then becomes a possibility. Additionally, New Delhi would have to use its good offices with Teheran/Moscow to play honest broker between the US and Iran and lobby to stay Trump's hand on pulling the plug on the Iran nuclear deal in return for Iran staying away from Afghanistan.The blowback could include leaving ordinary Afghans to the tender mercies of its warlords, but then we have to deal with the world as we find it. As for the future, remember Indo-US interests do coincide in the East.