For the BJP to tie up with a party that rationalises soft separatism, would be an enormous leap of faith. For the PDP and its leader, Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, joining hands with the BJP, runs the risk of rival accusations
It’s not going to be quick and easy, but the political mood would suggest a protracted negotiation and deal between the BJP and the Peoples Democratic Party, leading to the formation of a Government, is the only way forward in Jammu & Kashmir. What seemed unimaginable a few weeks ago, is emerging as the only viable alternative to Governor’s rule and a fresh election. No doubt, this would be an audacious gamble for both the parties. For the BJP, with its right-of-centre, nation-first positioning, to tie-up with a party that rationalises soft separatism would be an enormous leap of faith. For the PDP and its leader, Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, joining hands with the BJP runs the risk of rivals in the valley accusing him of bringing back Hindu raj, dependent as any such Government would be on the 25 BJP MlAs from Jammu.
Yet, is there really an optionIJ A Government minus the PDP would be patently unfair on the valley and keep out the party that won a comfortable majority of the valley’s seats. A Government minus the BJP would be patently unfair on Jammu and keep out the party that won two-thirds of Jammu’s seats. No other combination can add up to a mandate. At the root of the optimism of a BJP-PDP coalition, is not an enlightened assessment of Jammu & Kashmir’s future but pressure from MlAs. PDP MlAs want a taste of office. If they are out of power for another term, it could amount to a long, 12-year exile since the Congress-PDP alliance fell apart in 2008. Inevitably, this would lead to discontent in the PDP camp and a revolt against the Mufti, pushing 79 and in the twilight of his career. At a recent meeting all but one of the PDP MlAs nodded to partnering the BJP if this were the only route to Government.
The PDP appears to believe it will not be seriously outflanked in the valley. Its leaders speak of a certain goodwill for Mr Atal Bihari Vajpayee and of hope generated by Mr Narendra Modi, especially given the economic aspirations of younger Kashmiri Muslims (in the 21-40 years age group). While this does not necessarily make Mr Modi a winner in the valley — as was made apparent during the recent election — it gives him a political capital that is incrementally higher than sympathy for his party. For the moment, the PDP is optimistic this will lead to some backing, or at least no unmanageable hostility, to a ‘Mufti-Modi’ duumvirate.
For the BJP, which practically monopolised the Hindu-majority seats in Jammu, 2014 represents an unprecedented mandate, one that will not be repeated easily. Voters from Jammu have not given the party so many MlAs to sit in opposition. They want it to take a shot at Government, whatever the costs and compromises. This is similar to the pressure from below that the BJP leadership encountered in 1996. The election that year gave it only 161 seats in the lok Sabha but as the single-largest party it was obligated to stake its claim.
So what is delaying matters between the PDP and the BJPIJ Frankly, both sides have to not just sort out differences but also be seen to be driving a hard bargain. A swift marriage is neither possible and nor would it be advisable in terms of messaging to the base. That apart, even if the BJP places a moratorium on its opposition to Article 370, there are five areas that need resolution. Some are reasonably easy to fix, others are more vexatious. The BJP would want optimal autonomy for a regional council in Jammu (and probably ladakh as well). It would also want a serious plan to resettle, with dignity and security, those Kashmiri Pandits who wish to return to the valley from exile in Jammu, Delhi or elsewhere in the country. There should be little problem on these fronts, as the Mufti and the PDP are already committed to similar plans.
The third issue relates to the Chief Minister. As the larger party and with the most senior politician in the State leading it, the PDP would want the chief ministership. It would be agreeable to a BJP politician from Jammu serving as deputy Chief Minister. Will this be a six-year deal or will the BJP ask for a fresh look at the terms of engagement in three years, midway through the life of the AssemblyIJ Is there any guarantee that the Mufti will agree to step down in favour of a BJP Chief Minister in three yearsIJ Is such an expectation even realistic to entertainIJ Would it be pragmatic to settle for a strong Deputy Chief Minister who has considerable administrative authority, especially with regard to the development of JammuIJ
These are questions for the BJP to ponder. As a political party, it can be relied upon to choose a practicable option, with near-term benefits. This is especially so since the likelihood of a midterm election in Jammu & Kashmir is high. Issues four and five are where the problem lies. As representatives from Jammu, the BJP’s MlAs are duty-bound to demand fresh legislative delimitation in the State. Delimitation takes place in accordance with the population. As populations shift, so does the legislative balance. Delimitation is always a contentious subject. If carried out across India, it would mean the northern States, getting still more lok Sabha seats and the southern States losing out, paradoxically being penalised for success in population stabilisation.
When delimitation of constituencies took place after the 2001 census, it was decided, the number of lok Sabha seats in a State would remain fixed — but constituency boundaries would be re-drawn within the States to reflect migration and population growth. However, this was not done in Jammu & Kashmir. As such, Jammu has 37 seats and Kashmir 46 in an Assembly of 87. Delimitation would reflect the changing demographics of the State, including, but not limited to, the expulsion of Hindus from the valley in the 1990s. It would likely cede a majority of seats to Jammu. The PDP cannot possibly agree to this, and the BJP cannot give up on it.
Finally, to cater to the separatist constituency, the PDP is thinking aloud on making its alliance to the BJP conditional to some sort of time-table for talks with Pakistan to discuss the future of the Kashmir dispute. This could be a maximalist line taken as a bargaining ploy. Surely the Mufti knows there is little chance of the Modi Government being hustled into a conversation with Pakistan — or handing a veto to the PDP. Nevertheless, these are the issues on the table. In the coming days, they will need to be thrashed out.
malikashok@gmail.com