Can Congress hold onIJ Will BJP be a new starIJ
Manipur is an interesting electoral contest to watch out. The north-eastern State has so far been a Congress bastion, with a clutch of regional parties making their presence known off and on. In recent months, the Congress had to also contend with the rising presence of Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress (TMC). But while the TMC is a weakened force now as a result of defections, the Congress's new worry is the emergence of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The buzz already is that the BJP could replace the incumbent Congress regime, riding on a win in the State Assembly election. While we will know on March 11 if this happens, for now the BJP is confident enough. The BJP's confidence is evident from the fact that it has decided to take on the Congress single-handedly. It has not tied up with either the National People's Party or the Naga People's Front, both regional outfits with dedicated support in many pockets of the State. The party clearly wants to extend its influence in the North-East on its own if possible, and with tie-ups only if necessary. It made a beginning by winning the Assembly election in Assam, displacing the Congress regime. In Arunachal Pradesh, the party now has its own Government after many MlAs of a ruling regional party (including the Chief Minister), switched over to the BJP. The problem for the Congress is not just the threat from the BJP but also from the anti-incumbency factor (it has been in power for 15 years). Besides, the Government led by Okram Ibobi Singh has been battling a few local issues that have become so contentious that they could possibly vote decisively against it. The Government's move, for instance, to create seven new districts, has resulted in a severe backlash from various Naga groups who believe that the decision was to cut down their socio-political profile in the State. The United Naga Council even imposed an economic blockade, bringing the State's economic activities to a near halt. While the Chief Minister has blamed the BJP for the crisis, claiming that the party had incited the agitators, the latter has hit out, alleging a complete failure on the Congress regime's part to resolve the crisis.
The electoral battle has also underlined the schism between the hill and the valley regions of Manipur. Nearly 65 per cent of the State's population (largely non-tribal) lives in the valley, while the rest resides in the hills (which comprise close to 90 per cent of the State's geographical area and account for just 33 per cent of the 60 Assembly seats in the State). Both these sections have different issues and grievances and, unfortunately at times, the differences have led to confrontation, violence and bad blood. The Congress has obviously failed to settle the issue during its long tenure in power, while the BJP promises to reverse the situation. The Irom Sharmila factor appears to be a non-issue. She may have been liked as an activist; as a politician she seems to be a non-starter.