Both the Congress vice president and the Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister face the litmus test in the 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election. But, while Akhilesh Yadav has credibility, Rahul Gandhi is seen as a failed leader
Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav seem to have formed a mutual admiration club. Perhaps they need each other at this moment. Both are facing issues of leadership, though in different ways. Both are far from sure of steering their respective parties to electoral victories in the coming years. In the more immediate 2017 Assembly election in Uttar Pradesh, both believe they can prop each other up in case the situation demands.
Such is the new-found affection that the Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister sought to defend the Congress vice president’s irresponsible accusation that Prime Minister Narendra Modi was indulging in “khoon ki (or was it ‘unki’, meaning jawansIJ) dalali” in the wake of the surgical strikes the Indian Armed Forces carried out recently in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Displaying touching faith in Rahul Gandhi’s wisdom, Akhilesh Yadav said the Congress leader must have had “some information” — meaning, it was not an off-the-cuff remark. Strangely, the Samajwadi Party leader did not seek the disclosure of this valuable piece of material which has been exclusively available to Rahul Gandhi. If parties can demand the release in public of ‘evidence’ of a sensitive operation such as the surgical strikes, they must also ask the Congress MP to disclose the information based on which the dalali remark was made.
Returning to the main subject, how can Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav be of help to each otherIJ In the electoral context, only if the Samajwadi Party comes within striking distance of getting the numbers to form a Government in Uttar Pradesh in early 2017. And, also if the Congress does well enough to be a supporting partner. As things stand, the possibility of the Samajwadi Party doing well, if not as well as it did in 2012, is brighter than the Congress’s chance of gaining a respectable number of seats. If the Congress emerges in a disabled state, it can hardly be someone’s crutch.
There is an additional factor to contend with. Even if the Samajwadi Party does decently, Rahul Gandhi’s new admirer may not become the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh. Akhilesh Yadav’s second term is in clear jeopardy, if senior party leader Shivpal Yadav has his way. In recent weeks, Shivpal Yadav has deftly out-smarted the Chief Minister in collaboration with party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav. He has snatched the State party chief’s position from Akhilesh Yadav, successfully pushed the merger (against the Chief Minister’s wishes) of muscleman Mukhtar Ansari’s Quami Ekta Dal with the Samajwadi Party, and shown several Akhilesh-loyalists the door. Moreover, refusing to endorse Akhilesh Yadav for a second term in case the party wins, Shivpal Yadav said a decision on the chief ministerial candidate would be taken later. Does Rahul Gandhi want to do business with the likes of Shivpal YadavIJ
Given the bitter divide between the Shivpal and the Akhilesh camps, the Samajwadi Party will be contesting as much against itself as against its rivals. Before Akhilesh Yadav gets to tango with Rahul Gandhi, he has to outwit his uncle, not to mention his father who is firmly on Shivpal Yadav’s side. He is a decent politician (in relative terms) who tried to provide decent governance (in relative terms) but was constantly ring-fenced in his first term as Chief Minister (by relatives and vested interests). Does Akhilesh Yadav have the killer instinctIJ
He need not look to Rahul Gandhi for support; the Congress leader has no instinct. The Nehru-Gandhi scion is suspect on both timing and content. The ‘suit-boot ki sarkar’ jibe, the ‘arhar Modi’ snide, the ‘selfie with farmer’ sarcasm, and the latest ‘dalali’ shocker, are evidence that the Prime Minister-in-waiting (in the Congress’s eyes), despite being in active politics for over a decade, simply does not understand the pulse of the people, and remains politically juvenile. Akhilesh Yadav, though he has been in politics for all of five years, is politically savvier and enjoys greater credibility.
Rahul Gandhi must of course be hoping that the praise coming from the Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister will somehow save the day for him in Uttar Pradesh. He has led the party to disaster in every major election in the last few years, with the abysmal 44-seat haul in the 2014 lok Sabha poll being a new low. With his track record of leadership, he would have been out in the cold in any organisation. But he is in the Congress, and the party is run by the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, of which he is a prominent member. So, he not only continues but also prospers. Soon, he will be elevated as party president — or working president — for the ‘good’ he has brought on the table.
The Congress leader’s failure is not limited to the electoral battle; he has messed up party affairs as well. It was his ineptitude that led to the debacle in Assam (where a senior and influential leader walked out of the party, joined the BJP and contributed enormously to its victory in the Assembly election), and the fiasco in Arunachal Pradesh (where the Congress could not capitalise on a court order which had gone in its favour). These are just two instances. A few other State Congress units are waiting to implode.
If Akhilesh Yadav has detractors out in the open within his party, Rahul Gandhi’s critics in the Congress are a muffled lot. The Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister has been censured publicly by his father and party supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav on multiple occasions, and this emboldened his critics. But Congress president Sonia Gandhi has not spoken a word against her failed politician-son, at least not in the public domain. There aren’t reports from insiders that she has ever expressed her reservation over his functioning, in closed meetings too. As a result, even party functionaries who have spent decades in public service, are loath to question Rahul Gandhi. He has a coterie of followers who will take him down the same path Rajiv Gandhi went. But at least Rajiv Gandhi was politically sensible in many ways, despite his other faults.
The Uttar Pradesh battle will be another litmus test for the Congress vice president. Though, even if he fails the test, he will lose nothing (except his credibility, which is in short supply anyway). If the Congress, under his leadership, cannot latch on to the Samajwadi Party, it will hope to strike an alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party. At any cost, it will want a say in governance, as a face-saver for both itself and its perennially ‘young’ and ‘dynamic’ leader.
(The writer is Opinion Editor, The Pioneer)