A substantial section of voters have zeroed in on Narendra Modi for the Prime Minister's job. While he has built up his image as a firm and decisive leader, some credit must go to his detractors as well
The bitter and long drawn campaign in the lok Sabha election, which finally came to an end last Saturday, has thrown up some trends regarding the factors which have influenced the voters this time. While it is never easy to forecast the number of seats each party will get, it is possible to pick up signals about which way the wind is blowing.
One trend that has been visible in lok Sabha election since the emergence of regional political parties in different States is that State-level electoral preferences of voters usually gets reflected in a Parliament election as well. This trend may still persist in some States in 2014 as well, but there are signs this time that voters are drawing a clear distinction between the State Assembly and lok Sabha poll.
During travels in four States in recent weeks, this writer met many voters who said that the question before them in this election was: “Who should govern IndiaIJ”, and they had answered it through their ballot. This means that after a long time, electors in many States have risen above regional and caste considerations while exercising their franchise.
This trend appears to have crystalised over the past year or so because of the omissions and commissions of the UPA Government, There is much disappointment among voters about the performance of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, his leadership (or more correctly, the absence of it), his stony silence even in the face of calamities or even aggression from across the border and his failure to prevent blatant acts of corruption by his Ministers. The barbaric treatment of Indian soldiers by the Pakistan Army and the reports of regular Chinese intrusions into Indian territory and the pusillanimous response of the Union Government to these incidents has left many voters sad and angry. Finally, the real clincher is the nationwide feeling that Mr Singh is not in control of his Government and that he is subject to remote control.
Voters in different parts of the country state some or other of these reasons as influencing their voting decision in 2014 and say that they want a Prime Minister who has the following qualifications: He must be decisive; he must speak up for India; he must rejuvenate the economy; he must step up development; he must be in control of the Government; and he must provide a corruption-free Government. At first glance, this would seem like a tall order. But then one must note that the length of the peoples’ wish list is directly proportional to their disillusionment with the incumbent Government.
Apart from all this, there is another significant demand. The voters seem to want the next Prime Minister to head a ‘majboot sarkar’ (a strong Government), meaning thereby that they are no longer comfortable with unstable coalitions at the federal level. They feel that this trend needs to be reversed if one has to have a ‘majboot sarkar’ and a ‘decisive Prime Minister’. This also indicates the voters’ discomfort with Third Front-type Governments and, as a result, some of the parties falling in this category may get squeezed in this election.
Mr Singh describes this constraint as ‘coalition dharma’ and says that he is hamstrung by it. But the public perception is that this is actually ‘coalition adharma’, and that a strong-willed Prime Minister call always call the bluff of his allies and ensure that the Prime Minister’s Office retains its authority and control over Government.
This brings us to the final question: What does this mean in terms of the final outcome in lok Sabha Election 2014IJ Since the voters are disillusioned with an unethical coalition at the Centre which is headed by a man who is perceived to be weak, they seem to want a Prime Minister who is the very antithesis of Mr Singh. A substantial section of voters have consequently zeroed in on Mr Narendra Modi for the job. While Mr Modi has built up his image as a firm and decisive leader focussed on development and governance, some credit must go to his detractors as well.
By singling him out for attack ever since the BJP anointed him as the prime ministerial candidate on September 13, 2013, they have willy-nilly made this a Modi or No-Modi election and for the moment, it appears to be working to Mr Modi’s advantage. Some other factors have also been working for him. For example, the fact that he was a tea-seller in a railway station during his formative years has struck a chord with the poor and dispossessed. They feel that he is living the great Indian dream which offers equal opportunity to one and all and enables even the poorest of the poor to move up the ladder provided one has the discipline, positive energy and the gumption to overcome social and economic disabilities and dream big.
Initially some members of the Congress mocked at his humble beginnings but clearly that seems to have boomeranged. The tea-seller is surely preferred to the dynast. The second factor that appears to be playing out in his favour is the fact that he belongs to a caste that is part of the Other Backward Classes. This fact has made it easier for a large section of the voters within this segment to rise above their caste considerations and relate to him.
Finally, a word about the BJP. Most of those who hit the lotus button on their electronic voting machines say that their vote was for Mr Modi and not the party. In many constituencies they say they neither know the BJP candidate nor do they care. All they know is that they are voting Mr Modi. Mr Modi has sensed this and, therefore, his television appeal to voters says “hit the lotus button and be assured that that vote is coming directly to me”.
There have been few occasions in the past when such a strong and charismatic personality has dominated the discourse in a parliamentary election. The only examples one can think of are the lok Sabha elections held in 1971 and 1980. On both these occasions, it was Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, the leader of her faction of the Congress versus the rest and on both occasions she came out triumphant. What does the general election of 2014 hold for usIJ
We must wait till May 16 to know the extent to which the electorate has backed Mr Modi and whether India will get a ‘strong and decisive’ Government.