Kabul attack shows Taliban won’t give up soon
The major Taliban attack in Kabul on Tuesday, that claimed several lives and injured about 300 people, marks the somewhat official beginning of this year's spring offensive (though fighting has continued even through past months due to the relatively gentle winter) and is an indicator of how bloody and violent this season will be. This is primarily because the Taliban have a new leader, Mullah Akhtar Mansour, and he is still trying to consolidate his position. Therefore, he can be expected to lead a strong and spectacular campaign, with attacks on several symbolic high-level targets, such as the headquarters of the Afghan security agency which protects dignitaries, where fighting ensued on Tuesday following a suicide car bombing. In the past few months, Mullah Mansour has steadily strengthened his position he has won the support of his predecessor's kin who initially opposed his candidacy. He has also brought Al Qaeda and the Haqqani network on board. He still has to deal with a breakaway faction but his biggest headache is the Islamic State (or, more accurately, the group of militants that flies the Islamic State banner). This group reportedly has more money and arms than the Taliban and is poaching Taliban fighters in spite of its own recent territorial losses. If Mansour doesn't win the fight against the Islamic State, the Taliban will be faced with a two-front battle it cannot afford. In short, while Mullah Mansour may have named this year's campaign after his predecessor Mullah Omar who supposedly died in Pakistan in 2013 but whose passing was announced only last year, leading to the bitter succession dispute Operation Omari is still his own make-or-break moment.
This is also possibly why he shunned the multinational peace talks that were initiated last year. In July 2015, Pakistan mediated the first ever direct official talks between the Taliban and the Afghan Government, with the US and China also at the table, but the process was suspended when Mullah Omar's death was announced. Efforts were made to restart the process just before the fighting season began this year but the Taliban walked out, causing much embarrassment to Pakistan. What this also means is that the Taliban are well-prepared for battle and can be expected to hit hard, and repeatedly. Ultimately, the Taliban know that like the previous year, this year too is crucial for them and the Afghan security forces in the fight for Afghanistan, post the American drawdown. While there still are US soldiers in Afghanistan, it is primarily the Afghan military and police that are responsible for the country's defence and security and they are yet to decisively set back the Taliban and other militant groups. The situation on the battleground is still fluid with groups winning and losing prized territory, like Kunduz, which fell to the Taliban last year but was liberated weeks later, or Nangarhar, which was held by Islamic State until the group was chased out earlier this year.