Kerala left in crisis mode

The CPI(M) is desperate to explain the defeat of its candidate M Vijayakumar, a widely respected former Assembly Speaker and former Minister, in the June 27 Assembly by-election in Aruvikkara constituency, as just another poll defeat. In fact, the defeat poses serious questions about its very survival as a political party. Many party leaders are now generously admitting that the by-election was held in a political situation that was extremely favourable for the CPI(M)-led lDF, as the Congress-headed ruling UDF was writhing in a pit of scams in which even Chief Minister Oommen Chandy, his Cabinet colleagues and several Congress leaders were accused of involvement. The Congress itself was in disarray, with a section demanding a leadership change. The UDF was facing disunity due to disgruntlement among certain constituents.

It was even alleged that Mr Chandy was in association with fraudsters and con-women. Apart from all these, Aruvikkara, which had been represented by the Congress for the past 24 years, is perhaps the only place in Kerala where people still starve for food. Yet, the destiny of the CPI(M) candidate was to get defeated by Congress's 31-year-old novice, KS Sabarinathan, by a margin of over 10,000 votes. The main reason for this was the Marxist leadership's inability to understand the electorate's actual aspirations and respond accordingly. The still-fuming war within the CPI(M) made a united approach to the by-poll impossible. The leadership totally failed in putting forward even a single point to the electorate on which it should vote for the left. The left’s poll campaign was, thus, reduced to an audio-visual spectacle of plastic boards, roadshows, hollow speeches and dated socialist songs. The defeat was inevitable. And it was so huge that the left was rejected in seven out of the eight panchayats that formed the constituency. At the same time, the by-poll result have become a justification for the scam-ridden UDF rule and gave the Government a new energy to tread along the same path.

Theories have already come up to the effect that the by-poll result is a clear pointer to the defeats awaiting the Kerala left, which has not put up a good electoral show since 2009, in the civic poll to be held in October and the Assembly poll due in April next. Even some CPI(M) leaders are secretly admitting that the party could face the West Bengal unit's fate if some real corrective measures are not taken immediately. However, the by-poll seems to have opened a new era for the BJP in Kerala with its candidate, former Union Minister O Rajagopal, polling 34,145 votes, while the party's score in 2011 election was just 7,964 votes. This has given the BJP a new hope about opening electoral account in the State in the 2016 Assembly election. An impartial analysis of the current Kerala politics and the situation in several Assembly constituencies may show that this hope need not be unrealistic.