India must launch global diplomatic offensive
Following the four terrorist attacks in Jammu & Kashmir on Friday and 26/11 mastermind Hafiz Saeed's anti-India rally in lahore the same day, it is imperative for India to send a clear message to Pakistan that such provocations will not be tolerated.
However, given past experiences with such diplomatic missives, we know well that the fresh one too will fall on deaf ears. Hence, New Delhi needs to take this to the next level: launch a major diplomatic offensive to isolate Pakistan. It must aggressively lobby foreign Governments — leveraging its economic might and the general goodwill it enjoys — to invite punitive measures against Pakistan and label it a terror-sponsoring state.
It needs to build a strong case against Pakistan and share that evidence around the world. It already has tonnes of proof that incriminates Pakistani state and non-state actors in terror attacks around the country over the years — except that up until now, it has shared that evidence primarily with Pakistan, in the hope that the latter will take the necessary steps to at least rein in the terror elements. This has not happened, and Pakistan continues to use militants to a wage a proxy war against India, with the scale and intensity varying over time.
Friday's events are clear indicators that the heat is being turned up again. This is due to the convergence of certain factors in India and Pakistan. In this country, the attacks have been scheduled keeping in mind Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Jammu & Kashmir on Monday, the ongoing Assembly election in that State and US President Barack Obama's upcoming Republic Day tour in January.
The aim is to vitiate the atmosphere and draw attention to Kashmir's ‘disputed' status. Violence before polls and VIP visits is, of course, an old strategy that has been employed often, albeit with limited result. Nevertheless, this time around, the scale of the offensive has been ramped up given the high-profile nature of the VIP visits and the tremendous success of the electoral process.
The significance of President Obama's Republic Day tour needs no reiteration; suffice it to say that it has left the Pakistani establishment squirming. As for the election, the high turnout in the first two phases of the voting process has left the separatists worried. They are also having sleepless nights over the possibility of the BJP gaining a foothold in the State.
Add to that the positive image of the Indian state, which gained currency during the flood relief operations while the separatists themselves were exposed as ineffective leaders, and it becomes clear why the latter are in an especially desperate position. Finally, the Modi Government's bold steps to cut the umbilical cord that connects the separatists to their Pakistani patrons, are an existential threat to both.
In Pakistan, the situation has deteriorated so much in recent months that the Kashmiri separatists are receiving much more than just unbridled support from across the border. Through a manufactured anti-Government protest, the military has again weakened the democratically elected regime. Sadly, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has given up whatever little political leverage he may have had for a peaceful resolution of the Kashmir issue.