Nitish Kumar seems set to pay for his arrogance
The findings of recent opinion polls that the Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United) is projected to fare miserably in the coming lok Sabha election will surprise only those who had over-estimated his hold over the electorate after his party snapped its alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party. The Chief Minister of Bihar and his colleagues in the party had believed that they would emerge stronger after breaking off on the issue of Mr Narendra Modi, and did not read — or did not wish to read — the growing surge of support for Mr Modi as the country's next Prime Minister. Contrary to what Mr Nitish Kumar may say, there was never any ideology or principle involved in his drastic decision to end an alliance that was firmly in the driver's seat and poised to wipe out the opposition in the general election. The Bihar Chief Minister allowed his ego and dislike for Mr Modi to take centre-stage at the cost of pragmatism. Now, his party stands isolated in the battle, having to contend with a near-certain Congress-Rashtriya Janata Dal-lok Janshakti Party alliance, besides a resurgent BJP in the State. From all accounts, his party is going to be pushed to the third place. If that happens, there is no excuse that Mr Nitish Kumar can give. He will not be able to hide behind explanations of principled politics taking precedence over electoral politics, because he is no longer seen as a principled politician. He used the 2002 violence in Gujarat under Mr Modi's chief ministership to snap ties with the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance some months ago, but had no problems in remaining within the NDA for more than a decade after the incident happened. Not only had he stuck to the alliance but he was also a Union Minister during the NDA rule. People are asking how Mr Nitish Kumar's conscience suddenly woke up in 2013. To rub salt into his wounds, the BJP seems to have gained heft in the State after he walked away from the alliance.
That the JD(U) has completely misread the situation is clear from the fact that even its committed supporters would love to see Mr Modi as the country's next Prime Minister. This is not good news for Mr Nitish Kumar who is busy positioning himself as a prime ministerial choice — not openly but through stealth — in case the so-called Third Front comes within striking distance of forming the Government in some miraculous manner. But even that dream of his will not materialise since there are as many claimants to the post as there are leaders in the yet-to-formed front, not to mention the reality that no such front is going to get the people's mandate. Worse, we don't really know if there is going to be only the Third Front — or a fourth as well. Worried leaders of the JD(U), staring at the writing on the wall, must be privately wondering what can be done now to salvage the situation, even as the Modi juggernaut rolls on across Bihar, as it is doing in most of the country.