The old warmth will take a while in returning
Though the six pacts, including one to avoid double taxation, between India and the Maldives may have grabbed headlines from President Abdulla Yameen's visit to New Delhi, it was the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group that was the priority item on the agenda. later this month, the CMAG is scheduled to review the track-record of the Maldivian Government, which has been criticised for suppressing the Opposition and scuttling democratic forces. The multilateral group will consider if the Government is engaging in talks with the Opposition and releasing Opposition leaders. Notably, the Yameen Government, under international pressure, has made some positive moves in this direction, including the release of former President Mohamed Nasheed, who was allowed to go to london. But because the Opposition wants all political prisoners to be freed before coming to the negotiating table, the talks have run into a dead-end. The Maldivian Government has also done itself no favours by arresting 16 journalists recently. This has accentuated its reputation as an autocratic regime. Now, the regime is worried that it may be penalised for its failure to create a viable atmosphere for an inclusive political dialogue. Unofficially, CMAG has already warned Male, and may now even suspend and sanction the Maldives, if it is not satisfied with the regime's efforts. India had previously worked with the administration in Male as well as the CMAG to prevent Maldives from being officially chastised. Foreign Secretary S Jaishankar was part of the CMAG team that met with the Maldivian Government in February. In fact, at the Press conference in New Delhi on Tuesday, President Yameen, who in a way broke protocol to come to Delhi at this time, publicly thanked India for “protecting Maldives” from CMAG action. The President had visited India during Prime Minister Narendra Modi's inauguration in 2014 and, according to diplomatic protocol, it was the latter that had to make a reciprocal visit. However, as bilateral relations soured, with the Yameen regime throwing out Indian infrastructure giant GMR and cosying up to Beijing, and also as the domestic political situation in Maldives worsened, the Prime Minister skipped the Maldives on his Indian Ocean tour last year.
But while Modi is yet to visit the island nation, his top diplomat has made several trips and the External Affairs Minister has also travelled once. Add to that the steady stream of Maldivian officials who have been in Delhi in recent months and it is clear that both Governments are consistently at work to improve the situation. Apart from the progress on the CMAG issue, bilateral issues are looking up, as the six pacts signed now show. The two Governments have also signed an action plan on defence cooperation (which may not please Beijing), building on their existing expansive defence ties. Despite these steps, the old warmth between Male and New Delhi will take time in making a comeback.