BJP registers impressive gains in vote share
The two main political formations — the Congress-led UDF and the CPI(M)-headed lDF — of Kerala are sitting stunned at the high vote share of the BJP in the State in the 16th lok Sabha election, though the latter could not open its account this time. As is usual, the UDF and lDF shared the 20 lok Sabha seats in Kerala. But this time a real realisation has dawned on them that a third force is fast emerging by eating into their support base. Indications of this prospect have been clear from the result of the lok Sabha election, as the BJP improved its vote-share to 10.3 per cent from the 6.3 per cent it had got in 2009. That was not the only achievement the party has had this time. In Thiruvananthapuram, its candidate O Rajagopal, a former Union Minister, claimed a strong second position after maintaining a steady lead over Congress's Shashi Tharoor — who had won the seat in 2009 by a margin of 99,998 votes — till 75 per cent of the votes were counted. The BJP candidate was also able to reduce Mr Tharoor's winning margin to 15,470 and push lDF candidate Bennet Abraham to a pathetic third place. The surge in the BJP's vote-share in Thiruvananthapuram is described as massive: Mr Rajagopal bagged 32.43 per cent of the total polled votes in the constituency, while the vote-share of the BJP candidate in 2009 was a mere 11.4 per cent.
The improvement in the BJP's performance in this election was not limited to Thiruvananthapuram. At least in four constituencies, its candidates bagged more than 1,00,000 votes, and in two constituencies its vote-share doubled in comparison to 2009. Poll analysts now say that the voting pattern in various constituencies indicates that the BJP has started eating into the vote-bases of both the UDF and the lDF.
It is this aspect which is worrying the two main fronts, even as the BJP in the State has been further energised. Its confidence is partly because of its improved local performance and partly due to the overwhelming victory the party has scored nationally under the leadership of Mr Narendra Modi. Till the result of this lok Sabha election was out, the CPI(M) had not given much thought to the strength of the BJP; the accepted theory had been that any BJP gain would be the Congress's loss (thus strengthening the left). The Marxists have suddenly woken up to the realisation that any vote that the BJP bags in addition to ten per cent could be coming from their traditional vote-banks like the Hindu lower caste Ezhavas and the Scheduled Castes. As far as the BJP is concerned, this was not an accidental development. When Mr Modi visited Kochi in February last, he had made it a point to communicate to communities such as the Ezhavas and to the Dalits on the need for a new shift in political outlook. For the time being, that programme seems to be working well, and there is reason to believe that the day the lotus blooms in God's Own Country may not be far.