Russia, Iran and Turkey hold the key now
The recent peace summit in Astana, the Kazakh capital, on the ongoing war in Syria, has raised little hope for a permanent solution. The talks marked the beginning of the latest diplomatic initiative to put an end to the nearly six-year-old conflict which has in fact threatened to rip the Syrian state apart. The two-day meet brought together three crucial powers — Russia, Iran and Turkey, along with representatives of the UN, the Syrian Government and the armed opposition involved in the conflict. But the opposition groups expressed their reservations over the role of Tehran in the peace process. Besides, the non-participation of both, Saudi Arabia and the US, will have its implications on hammering a durable dialogue in Syria. Again, the earlier ceasefire agreement that was reached between Russia and the US in September last year, could not be held for long. Even many of the warring groups were casting their doubts then over the sustenance of the deal, particularly over the commitments of Russia. Precisely, it was not only Russia, who is entirely a new player in the Syrian conflict, but also the US, which holds the key in almost all the conflicts in the region, should be blamed equally for the failure of that agreement. The latest truce pact has seen both Russia and Turkey, despite having their major differences towards the approaches to the conflict, coming together as joint organisers for the event. But, media reports say that it was Moscow's continued attempt that at least made the talks possible for now. However, this time, unlike the past, the three regional powers announced the creation of a “trilateral mechanism to observe and ensure full compliance with the ceasefire”, which has been there in place since last December. Also, for the first time in six years, the Syrian Government and the rebels agreed to sit together across the negotiating table. Further, the three major rival powers, having their own separate agendas', devising an understanding on this historic conflict, itself can be termed as significant.
Now, it needs to be seen, how the three nations will monitor the very complex peace deal, as it involves multiple players and their proxies on the sidelines. Though Bashar al-Jafari, the lead negotiator for the Syrian Government stated immediately after the summit that the “meeting succeeded in achieving the goal of consolidating the cessation of hostilities for a fixed period”, but many problematic issues remain unanswered. Once again, eyebrows are being raised on the durability of the fresh deal, as both Staffan de Mistura and Jafari, failed to provide specific details on how this will help furthering the truce and lessen violence committed by both the Government forces and the rebels. It would be worth watching how the Astana summit will influence the upcoming talks in Geneva, where the UN hopes to see remarkable progress, in bringing an immediate solution to the bloodbath in Syria.