Prime Minister Modi is a staunch supporter of the Jewish people and Israel. Although India and Israel have in recent years shared close ties, no Indian head of Government has visited the country in an official capacity
After a landslide election victory by Mr Narendra Modi, foreign policy thinkers had begun to rely on the BJP’s cheery slogan, “Good times ahead”, when trying to predict what the future might hold for India’s foreign policy. Some assume that the strongman Mr Modi will adopt a dramatically tougher line towards neighbouring Pakistan and China. Others suggest that Mr Modi will strengthen relations with Washington, DC and maintain India’s strong ties with Moscow. At the same time, there is a near consensus amongst commentators that at least one country is most likely going to be a main beneficiary of Mr Modi’s victory: The State of Israel. The newly elected Prime Minister is known to be a big supporter of the Jewish state. As the Chief Minister of Gujarat, Mr Modi had professed his admiration for Israel’s technological and economic advancements, whilst encouraging Israeli foreign direct investment and the signing of a bilateral free trade agreement.
The question is: Whether, as the Indian Prime Minister, Mr Modi’s personal inclination will be able to greatly change New Delhi’s pro-Arab, Iran-friendly, non-aligned policy, particularly when India’s foreign policy has been historically characterised more by continuity than by change.
Being two former British colonies, Israel and India represent ancient civilisations whose territory carries a special, sacred significance for the majority of its inhabitants. Although the two countries are located in difficult regions, both countries have democratic Governments rather than dictatorships. Whilst in both societies the largest minority group is Muslim, neither country has any quarrel with Islam, although both are constantly threatened by radical Islamist ideology. Despite sharing a number of important traits, it took India 44 years to officially recognise the pro-Western Jewish state, due to its anti-imperialist and anti-Western worldview, which was also shared at the time by the Arabs and the Muslim world.
Since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1992, commercial ties, military cooperation, space exploration and technology sharing between Jerusalem and New Delhi have grown significantly. For example, Israel has emerged as one of the largest arms exporters to India (around $10 billion over the past decade); bilateral trade in 2013 reached $4.39 billion, a significant figure compared to the modest $180 million in 1992; a strategic partnership was forged in the space sector with India launching an Israeli spy satellite (2008) and with the launch of an Indian radar imaging spy-satellite, built by Israel (2009); and a couple of months ago, the countries concluded an agreement to jointly assemble a ballistic missile defence system.
Although relations have been blossoming in the past two decades, India has continued to vote against Israel in the United Nations General Assembly. Moreover, Israel has been disheartened by India’s solidarity with the Palestinians, which was recently amplified when India expressed its support for the formation of a Palestinian Unity Government that includes the terrorist organisation, Hamas. Other sources of friction in the bilateral relations have been India’s reluctance to stand up against the crimes in Syria, its soft approach towards Iran’s nuclear ambitions, as well as its alignment with authoritarian states such as Russia and China.
In recent years, Israel has been pivoting towards the East and is aiming to develop relations with countries such as Japan, China, Vietnam and India. Jerusalem still remembers the strengthening of relations during the BJP-led Government (1998-2004) and is hopeful that Mr Modi’s administration will fulfill its expectations and prove to be a promising opportunity to expand ties. However, India has yet to turn towards Israel. In order for this to happen, a number of things are required:
The first is Mr Modi’s state visit to Jerusalem. Even though an Indian head of Government has never set foot in the Holy land in an official capacity, Mr Modi had visited Israel twice. A successful and historic state visit will mark a culmination of more than two decades of cooperation and will signal a mutual understanding of the need for a more mature bilateral relationship in which Jerusalem will need to focus on trade relations whilst respecting India’s strategic interests in the Persian Gulf and in Iran.
Israel needs to accept India’s ties with Iran. Whilst the Islamic Republic of Iran is the biggest strategic threat to the Jewish state, it is also an important partner for India and a country that shares historic, cultural, and ethnic links with New Delhi. Before the round of 2012 sanctions, Tehran was the second-largest supplier of crude oil to India, and because of its conciliatory approach towards the West, there is a possibility that close energy ties will be restored. Moreover, the relationship is vital for India because of a common need for stability in Afghanistan, potential trade access for India to Central Asia via Iranian territory, and India’s desire to maintain a balance in the West Asia between Shia-majority Iran and the Sunni-dominated Gulf states. This balance is important to India due to the fact that millions of Indians reside in those countries, and that the oil resources in those countries are essential for India’s economy. Israel should accept India’s strategic needs whilst bearing in mind that with respect to Iran’s nuclear programme, New Delhi has acted in conformity with the US’s policies. Jerusalem and New Delhi both agree that Iran should not have nuclear weapons, but their respective approaches are different. If Israel wants to use India’s influence in this matter, it should do it via Washington and not directly.
The countries should sign a free trade agreement. Since diplomatic relations were established, a legal framework for trade and economic cooperation was put in place by way of agreements such as the bilateral investment treaty, which helps protect private investments and encourage transparency. The next step should be forging a free trade agreement after three years of negotiation. According to Israeli Minister of Economy, a FTA could double the volume of trade within five years. Israel is considered a world leader when it comes to environmental sustainability, so obviously water management and agriculture technology will be areas in which bilateral trade can be expanded. Over the years, Israel has gained sizeable proficiency in the energy sector, including the renewable energy sector. FTA could, therefore, also increase Israeli involvement in assisting India in optimising and efficiently utilising energy resources, which is particularly needed for India’s fast-growing economy.
(The author is a contributing analyst for Wikistrat and a former member of the political team at the Israeli Embassy in Washington, DC)