The Prime Minister's tour of Central Asia should make up for decades of political dithering by New Delhi in its engagement with the region. India needs to enhance its politico-military and economic presence there
As Prime Minister Narendra Modi travels to Central Asian states, media headlines flamboyantly claim, ‘India Playing the Great Game’ in the region, when the fact is that this country missed the bus nearly three decades ago, upon the Soviet Union collapsing and the five ‘Stans’ becoming independent. ‘Playing catch-up’ is a more appropriate headline, given India’s indolent decision-making.
Today, Mr Modi is in Astana, the new capital of Kazakhstan, though he began his journey aptly in Tashkent, the capital of Uzbekistan. In 1996, Gen Nasirullah Khan Babar, then Interior Minister in the Benazir Bhutto Government and founder of the Afghan Taliban met me in Peshawar, spread the map of Asia and, putting a pencil on Tashkent, traced the proposed path of the original Silk Road, from there through Afghanistan, Pakistan, India and South East Asia, terminating in Singapore. His vision is being implemented by Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Besides retrieving the residual stakes in oil, gas and minerals abundant in the region but neglected, Mr Modi will attend back to back, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and Brazil Russia India China South Africa grouping summits, including a composite brainstorming session of the two and the Eurasian Economic Union with which India is mulling to establish a free trade agreement.
Here is a useful reckoner of Central Asian states. Having been under Soviet rule for nearly 150 years, Russia’s domination, though declining, is apparent. The Central Asian states fear Russia after the latter’s Ukraine enterprise though still, history and geography are on Moscow’s side. The US and China are also competing for stakes, Beijing using its massive economic wealth and Washington, DC, the security pivot. Amidst these Big Power games, the Central Asian states are striving for strategic autonomy and may find New Delhi, though disadvantaged by geography, a reliable balancing partner.
The Central Asian states’ worries encompass a spillover of insecurity from Afghanistan especially the spread of radical Islam, increased drug trafficking and a refugee crisis. lack of political centralisation and any state-building process, ethnic and tribal divisions, meddling by external players and criminalisation of society are their other woes.
Further, the region is not integrated in any collective organisation. Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, the three states sharing borders with Afghanistan have a different outlook on security from Kyrghyzstan and Kazakhstan who do not share borders but all Central Asian states suffer from instability. Inter-state rivalries and disputes over water, borders and regional primacy are plenty.
Uzbekistan has mood swings between Russia and the US but feels it is the lead regional player. Pro-Russia Kazakhstan, which is as big as India and rich in energy resources, feels it is the dominant state. Most affluent, of course, is gas-rich Turkmenistan which has opted to be a neutral state.
Militancy and terrorism afflict all the Central Asian states — the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Islamic Jihad Union (Kazakhstan), East Turkestan Islamic Movement and Jamaat Ansarullah Society (Tajikistan). The Hizb ut-Tahrir and Tabligh Jamaat are banned in all the Central Asian states except Tajikistan. The biggest contemporary challenge to the Russian-speaking region, where all states, except Tajikistan are majority Sunni and ethnic Turks, is the Islamic State. The Central Asian states have sent more than 4,000 volunteers to join the terror group.
India’s interests in the region are in petroleum products, uranium, gas and commercial agriculture and enhancing trade, which is stuck at around $500 million. The Central Asian states need new technologies, defence expertise and military hardware, though they are cautious about establishing defence relations with India.
India’s defence cooperation is on a modest scale with all states, except neutral Turkmenistan. New Delhi is interested in exchanging the Tajik and Uzbek experience in de-radicalisation and counter-terrorism. Indian Army officers are deployed in Ferghana valley, with Kyrghyz troops, teaching English and UN peacekeeping. Bishkek wishes to send one of its rifle companies with an Indian battalion on a UN peacekeeping mission.
In Tajikistan, there was some difficulty with Russia over the Ayni airbase, where Indian Air Force personnel operate the air control tower. But its importance has diminished since the acquisition of air refuelling capability. India is building a military hospital in Tajikistan. With Kazakhstan, a Special Forces exercise was conducted for the first time. India’s strategic partnerships with these three must be augmented.
In the energy sector, both in Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, India was sidelined by China. In 2013, ONGC was ready to invest five billion dollars in the Kashagan oilfield but Astana sold the blocks to China. India met a similar fate with gas transfers from Ashgabat mainly due to political dithering.
With the Chabahar Port in Iran likely to be operational soon, Mr Modi will be ready to recompense for lost investments. India wants to build a urea plant in Turkmenistan and an memorandum of understanding on this could be signed. The Framework Agreement for Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline was signed in 2008. Pessimism continues to surround its future with doubts even about sufficiency of gas in the Yolotan Osman fields. Mr Modi has to demonstrate that New Delhi is serious and decisive about its vision and plans for trade, investment and development in the Central Asian states, notwithstanding the geographical handicap.
Tomorrow, Mr Modi will attend the China-led SCO summit in Ufa, Russia. The Russia-initiated expansion of the SCO, by including India and Pakistan (Iran excluded because it is under sanctions), is on the cards though China has not been keen about it. This would make the Russia-India-China grouping of the world’s three large economies and four nuclear powers become part of SCO. large-scale infrastructure and technological projects like the Silk Road Economic Belt and projects from the Eurasian Economic Union are planned to be integrated.
The Central Asian states fear that SCO will become a platform for India and Pakistan sniping. If they have failed to converse bilaterally on Afghanistan, it will now be possible under the SCO. The Central Asian states are also not to happy with India’s silence on the Russian annexation of Crimea. If the SCO expansion indeed takes place, India’s engagement with the region will be of immense strategic benefit.
India needs to enhance its politico-military and economic presence in the region by revamping the 12-point Connect Central Asia policy of 2012. New Delhi must end its decades of dithering and move on with commissioning the North-South Transport Corridor. It must avoid a repeat of a Chabahar-like situation wherein Iran made the offer in 2003 and India finalised it only this year. lack of connectivity has to be bridged for strategic reach north of Amu Darya. Further, New Delhi must steer carefully with Central Asian states that are trying to balance their relations with Russia and China.