End of Mullah Omar's era

There is not much that is known for sure about Afghan Taliban founder Mullah Omar's death. The Afghan Government says that he died in a Karachi hospital but the Taliban insists that he died in Afghanistan. Both agree that he died in 2013. These are two main official versions of the story but there are several other theories floating around as well: For example, some Afghan intelligence officials suggest that Mullah Omar succumbed to tuberculosis while others have say he died under mysterious circumstances in the Karachi hospital. There have also been reports that he was held under house arrest in Pakistan.

From the militants' side, a small group that split from the Taliban some years ago has claimed that Mullah Omar was killed by two of his former aides, while a local journalist with connections within the Taliban has the reported that the insurgent leader died in January 2013 possibly of a heart attack. It is impossible to verify these details, at least for the time being. The last time Mullah Omar was seen for sure was in 2001, during the US intervention in Afghanistan. As the Taliban lost control of Kandahar, the group's one-eyed leader was spotted driving away, into the mountains, on a motorbike. Since then, no one from the ‘outside world' has seen him. And even if they had, it is unlikely that he would have been recognised. There are two only photographs of Mullah Omar and the authenticity of both is debated. Also, Mullah Omar has been declared dead many times before but each time he has ‘surfaced' through missives to his fighters, death threats to infidels and Eid greetings. As recently as July 14, there was a message purportedly from the supreme commander — although, it had been suspected for quite some time that he was not directly sending these messages, even if he was alive. 

Against this backdrop, confirmation of Mullah Omar's death doesn't really come as a surprise. The question now is: How will this affect the Taliban in particular and Afghan security in generalIJ To answer this, one needs to understand Mullah Omar's position within the Taliban. While initially he was a regular commander leading from the front, he had later become a mystery figure of sorts, taking on semi-divine proportions. It is unclear how deeply, if at all, he was involved in the group's day-to-day functioning but his name was the glue that held the Taliban together. In recent years, however, that glue was wearing off. With Mullah Omar now officially gone (and his new successor already facing some dissent), the movement will possibly see more infighting and splits. It will also be challenged by the Islamic State, the more glamourous jihadi outfit. All of this will lead to an escalation of violence but it will also provide a rare opportunity for the Afghan Government to pursue peace with a smaller section of the Taliban that is serious about entering the political mainstream while militarily crushing the more radical factions.