You don't need Albert Eistein, or even Narendra Modi, to chalk out policy prescriptions. These are well-known. It is the delivery mechanism for the solutions that is not there
On Thursday, February 27, Mr Narendra Modi gave three speeches to broadly economic-stakeholder audiences in Delhi —to associations of traders and chartered accountants and then to business executives and diplomats at the India Economic Convention 2014 hosted by the India Foundation. The build-up to this day of speeches had been both bemusing and comic. There was much excitement in the media that these addresses — particularly the one to the Economic Convention — would see Mr Modi “outline his economic vision”, “state his policy priorities”, “draw up a roadmap for rescuing the economy” and so on.
To some degree, this reflected the smug belief among pundits and media gurus in the capital that if they miss a story, the story simply does not exist. Mr Modi’s major economic speech actually came on January 19, while addressing those gathered for the BJP’s national council. The speech was insufficiently treated by the media, which simply didn’t read it or hear it as carefully as it merited. The following day, Arvind Kejriwal began his dharna in Delhi and the media circus moved on.
As such, when BJP insiders pointed out to media-persons —in the days preceding February 27 — that the “dramatic”, “blockbuster” speech they were waiting for (and would probably continue waiting for) may actually have been delivered a month earlier, the whole idea was brushed aside. How could anybody — indeed how could Mr Modi himself — claim which was Mr Modi’s biggest speech if the media itself had not recognised this speech as the biggest speechIJ Surely the big speech was ahead of us and would take place as predicted; if it didn’t take place on February 27, it would be predicted to take place at a later date — but no, in no circumstances could it be a speech that the media had missed assessing.
If this was the comic aspect, there was also a genuinely bemusing and bewildering one. What exactly is expected of an economic speech before an electionIJ For Mr Modi — or any politician —to announce specific details and policy prescriptions weeks before voting would not only be counter-productive but also presumptuous. There is no guarantee that Mr Modi is winning this election. He cannot take the verdict for granted and cannot start making policy announcements; that is not how astute politicians work.
That apart, the focus of the election campaign is on the UPA Government and its record, which Mr Modi and his party are attacking. It would be suicidal on the BJP’s part to shift the debate to Mr Modi’s policy recommendations and specific macro-economic plans — and allow the Congress to discuss these. That aside, any policy recommendation will please some people and displease others. Why should Mr Modi get into that game even before being electedIJ Whatever else he is, he is not stupid.
Having said that Mr Modi has given enough indications in his various speeches — on February 27 and earlier — as to where his interests and priorities lie. He could have been populist and defeatist while speaking to traders, but he talked up their morale and asked them to prepare for “global challenges”. If anybody expects him to spell out things even further, it would be asking for too much on the eve of a compelling election. He has talked of big-ticket and big-picture highway, railway and urbanisation projects, more or less saying that a dose of public spending to trigger demand in the economy is what he has in mind.
Where is the money for it, one may legitimately askIJ Yet, even the questioners know there is capital available if there is a will and policy clarity. Why should a candidate, as opposed to an elected Prime Minister, need to say moreIJ To those who ask about his overarching world view, the fact that Mr Modi described the three central attributes of the Indian economic system as being “democracy, demography and demand” should have conveyed something. What he was saying was that democracy was not a drag on urgent policy-making but could be a facilitator. It is to be noted that each of the three parameters he mentioned —including internal demand — are lacking in the Chinese economic model, which is enormously export dependant.
Frankly, the “details” and “policy enunciation” that Delhi’s professional pundits are waiting for, patiently and impatiently, are not just not going to arrive (or at least not arrive to their satisfaction) but are not even needed. You don’t require Mr Modi or even Albert Einstein to tell you that India needs a manufacturing story, India needs to provide jobs for its young population —about a million Indians will enter the workforce every month for the next 20 years; the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act cannot possibly satisfy them — India needs a massive infrastructure upgrade, India needs new cities, India needs an extensive education overhaul, Indian agriculture needs technology, including bio-technology, India needs to be open for business to the world and to Foreign Direct Investment in a variety of sectors.
As Mr Modi himself said at the Economic Convention, all this is “not rocket science”. To be fair, Mr Manmohan Singh can draw up the same menu, and so can a thousand others. The point is not that the solutions are not known — it is that the delivery mechanism is not there. The delivery mechanism is policy clarity, credibility in handling public finances and public resources (including natural resources), and ability to take quick decisions. Some of those decisions may well fail — but that is a risk an elected leader and a Government are honour-bound to take. That is what they are in Government for.
In another context, Mr Modi spoke of leadership — whether at the level of a municipal or panchayat official or a Prime Minister — requiring “dum”, a Hindi word that can be translated to be mean courage, resolve, enterprise or sheer gumption. Mr Modi holds the promise of these characteristics. He holds the promise that he will consider Government as not a plaything for self-aggrandisement — or enrichment of a household entourage and a sister’s husband — but as a sacred commodity held in “trust” (another world he used on February 27) and that he would take decisions, confident that even honest mistakes would be seen as such and forgiven and not viewed with suspicion.
Will Mr Modi win and deliver on all of theseIJ Only the future will well. Yet, the essential point he is making is apparent today itself: The problem with India’s economics is the politics. Fix the Government and the economy will take care of itself.
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