Herat consulate attack aimed at inciting Modi
The timing of the attack on the Indian consulate in the western Afghan city of Herat can hardly be coincidental. Coming just three days before India's Prime Minister-elect is scheduled to take office, and two days after he invited SAARC leaders, including the Prime Minister of Pakistan, to his swearing-in ceremony, it is clearly a provocation designed to test the nerves of Mr Narendra Modi. Variously described, especially in the international Press, as a ‘Hindu nationalist strongman', Mr Modi has promised to fight terror with a firm hand. This has been conveniently interpreted by his critics and scare-mongers alike as an unquenchable thirst for blood. Now, anti-India elements, ostensibly nurtured in Pakistan, are testing his ‘strongman' credentials and trying to gauge if they can force his hand. It is unlikely that they are expecting a full-scale military retaliation, but they are surely inciting Mr Modi to take a hardline approach. Moreover, if Mr Modi does not oblige them, the terrorists are calculating that it will breed discontent among fringe elements in his support base — the hard-core Right-wingers — and this will help keep the pot boiling.
At another level, they are also hoping that attacks such as these will vitiate India's relationships with its neighbours, especially at a time when Mr Modi has vowed to improve ties with them. On both counts, the terrorists have failed. Forget about stirring unrest within the ranks, the attack could not even muddy the waters between India and Afghanistan or, even, India and Pakistan. On the contrary, it publicly put all three on the same page. While the Pakistan High Commission in New Delhi promptly condemned the attack, the Afghan Ambassador made clear that the attack had only made his country more determined to strengthen its friendship with India.
India's relationship with Afghanistan, with whom it has a Strategic Partnership, has often been under threat. That Pakistan views the ties as detrimental to its national security interests has only complicated matters. Unsurprisingly then, Indian diplomats, much like their Western counterparts, are favoured terror targets — in August last year, the Indian Consulate in Jalalabad, close to the Afghan border with Pakistan, was attacked. The botched bombing killed nine locals, including six children. Prior to that, the Indian Embassy in Kabul had been bombed twice in 2008 and 2009. Together, the attacks claimed the lives of 75 people, including two Indians. Yet, none of this has deterred India's commitment towards building a strong and stable Afghanistan. India now has an investment of more than two billion dollars in key Afghan infrastructure projects. It has also added muscle to its Afghan commitment by giving, even if indirectly, military aid to Kabul. In the larger term, the India-Afghanistan bilateral won't be damaged easily. However, immediate threats to Indian interests and assets there do exist, especially as that country goes through a crucial transition phase. On June 6, even as Nato forces draw down, Afghanistan will vote in the second phase of its presidential poll which the Taliban have expectedly threatened to disrupt. If past experience is anything to go by, they will probably not succeed, but we must all keep vigil.