Opinion polls are projecting a massive defeat for the Congress in the lok Sabha poll. If they are proved right, whom will the party blame for the disasterIJ The weather, maybe, but certainly not Rahul Gandhi!
Only a few months ago, in the run-up to and immediately after the announcement of Mr Narendra Modi’s name as the Bharatiya Janata Party’s prime ministerial candidate, poll pundits and sundry others were wondering from where and how the party would get even 150 seats. Now, the discourse has taken a dramatic U-turn. These experts have begun scratching their heads to arrive at a three-digit figure for the Congress. Survey after opinion survey is projecting a rout for the ruling party and a triumphant return of the BJP. In fact, there are only a fistful of States where the Congress is projected to cross the double-digit mark. Unless all the pollsters have got it terribly wrong, the Congress is in for a truly unprecedented drubbing.
The commentators, along with Congress hopefuls, had concocted a scene where partners of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance would be making a beeline to quit in the wake of Mr Modi’s ascension. When Mr Nitish Kumar led his party out after it became clear that the Gujarat Chief Minister would be the prime ministerial nominee, they said in chorus that more departures were waiting to happen. They forgot that the other two major parties in the NDA had absolutely no problems with Mr Modi, and, therefore, there was no prospect of the alliance collapsing. Now that the survey results are coming out one by one, even those who had hailed Mr Nitish Kumar’s move are left to analyse how the Bihar Chief Minister had ‘gone wrong’. Add to the fact that the NDA is poised to grow in size and not shrink, and you have a situation where the earlier calculations are being tossed to the wind.
The other scenario the experts had helpfully provided as an alternative was that the BJP itself would be left deeply fractured and even destructed because of the decision to name Mr Modi as the prime ministerial nominee. Barring a few meek words of random protests — and that too by leaders that have no grassroots base — there has been no uprising. On the contrary, much to the alarm of the ‘secularists’, the party seems to have emerged stronger from the experience.
In the process, the factors that these political commentators ought to have considered, those which were destined to shore the BJP’s prospects, they ignored or downplayed. For instance, they wrote off the impact that the return of BS Yeddyurappa to the party’s fold would have on the BJP in Karnataka. They premised their argument on the simplistic notion that since Mr Yeddyurappa had lost credibility as a result of the mining scam, he would not be able to dent the Congress’s popularity in the State. Moreover, the Congress had only recently formed the State Government riding on the BJP’s unpopularity — which was largely, the commentators believed, a result of Mr Yeddyurappa’s mismanaged governance. These experts failed, or refused, to acknowledge that he has a dedicated vote-bank which had gone out of the BJP when he quit the party and has returned with his comeback. That explains to a significant measure the finding of the survey results which is giving the BJP anything between 12 and 17 seats out of the 28 seats that Karnataka contributes to the lok Sabha.
Of course, it is not just the Yeddyurappa factor that is working in the BJP’s favour in the State. Mr Modi’s rising popularity has boosted the party’s prospects in great measure. But even that would perhaps not have led to major gains for the party in the absence of a strong State-level face. Minus Mr Yeddyurappa, the BJP would have picked perhaps half-a-dozen seats. If the party now gets upward of 12 and crosses the halfway mark, it will be a stunning comeback for a party that had been unceremoniously ousted from power in the State less than a year ago. Mr Yeddyurappa’s return had become all but certain after Mr Modi was named the party’s prime ministerial choice — and even that had led to much analysis of the ‘negative’ fall-out for the BJP
If the Congress is predicted to perform just averagely in Karnataka, a State from which it must be hoping to reap rich electoral dividend, which other bastion can it depend on for the numbersIJ There are two major States which helped it make to power at the Centre in 2004 and 2009. The first is Maharashtra. The State has a Congress-Nationalist Congress Party Government and sends 48 members to the lok Sabha. Surveys predict that the BJP-Shiv Sena combine will corner significantly over half the seats. In other words, the Congress can expect no windfall from here this time around.
The second State that catapulted the party to the Centre is Andhra Pradesh. But the Congress is facing a rout here, with opinion polls giving it a paltry two out of the 42 seats on offer. The reasons for the disgrace are too recent to merit elaboration. Even commentators that have been very sympathetic to the Congress are finding it difficult to improve upon these figures to any substantial extent.
The projections in Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka alone should be enough for the Congress to throw in the towel. But there is more bad news that will rub salt into its wounds. In Uttar Pradesh, while poll surveys predict a single-digit tally for the party, the BJP is expected to triumph in at least 30 out of the 80 seats. In fact, some surveys are giving it as many as 40 seats. If the reality comes comes anywhere close to the predictions, the Congress can just pack its bags. If it does not, then West Bengal, Bihar, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh should make it do so. In all of these States, the party is slated to perform miserably. Barring in West Bengal, the BJP is projected to sweep the rest.
So, is there no silver lining for the Congress at allIJ Well, the party is expected to do well in Kerala and, to an extent, in Assam. But 15 odd seats are not going to change its fortunes, nor will the mopping up of a couple of seats here and there in the North-East. Moreover, it’s not as if the Congress is sweeping Kerala and Assam. The left is expected to give a fight in the former case while the BJP is likely to do fairly well in Assam.
This brings us to the larger picture of close to or even less than 100 seats — a recent survey done by a Hindi television channel gave the Congress as few as 70-plus seats. If this happens, who will take the blame in the partyIJ No prizes for guessing that no Congress leader will hold Mr Rahul Gandhi accountable, even if it means the leaders have to hold the weather responsible. Political analysts who are quick to point out that the Congress can still emerge out of the crisis in one piece, were the first ones to have gleefully written off, with a sense of finality, Mr Modi and the BJP under his electoral leadership, not too long ago.