That the party’s strength in the lok Sabha has been diminished is well known. But, a State-wise study shows that the electoral damage suffered by the party is much deeper than is superficially evident
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s impressive success in the recent lok Sabha election has altered the political scenario in very many ways both at the national and regional levels. The Bharatiya Janata Party’s saffron has come to replace the Congress’s tricolour in many States and Union Territories in India. The Congress’s defeat is so comprehensive that it faces the danger of being dislodged from its perch as a truly national party. That credit has now been snatched away by the BJP. For example, in 2009, the Congress won lok Sabha seats in 29 of the 35 States and Union Territories in the country. In 2014, it could establish its footprint in just 15 of these States and Union Territories. Meanwhile the BJP, which had a presence in just 14 States and Union Territories in 2009, won lok Sabha seats in 23 of them this year.
There are other indicators as well. For example, in the 2009 lok Sabha poll, the Congress secured 120 million votes constituting 28.55 per cent of the votes polled. In 2014, the Congress polled just 107 million votes and its vote share dipped to 19.30 per cent. The party’s loss of votes since the last parliamentary election is all the more significant because over 100 million new electors were added to the electoral rolls this time. On the other hand, the BJP, which secured just 78 million votes (18.80 per cent) in 2009 more than doubled its vote share in this election by securing over 170 million votes.
That the Congress’s strength in the lok Sabha has crashed from 206 to 44 seats in the recent election is well known. But, a State-wise study of data of the lok Sabha election indicates that the electoral damage suffered by the party is far wider and deeper than is generally appreciated.
The voters’ anger against India’s oldest party in best gauged by the following facts: The Congress did not win a single seat in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Delhi, Andhra Pradesh, Jharkhand, Jammu & Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Goa; it failed to touch double digits in any State including Karnataka and Kerala, considered its best bets; finally, the party’s vote share in percentage terms crashed to abysmally low levels in States like Uttar Pradesh (7.5), Andhra Pradesh (11.5), West Bengal (9.6), (Bihar 8.4), Jharkhand (13.3) and Tamil Nadu (4.3).
While it is true that one should not write off any political party, there are distinct signs of decline of the Congress in most States. The party ruled Uttar Pradesh and Bihar for decades after independence but it is now in terminal decline in these States. In 1984, it bagged 83 of the 85 seats in Uttar Pradesh and over 51 per cent of the votes. Thereafter, its fortunes crashed. It won just two seats this time and its vote share has crashed to 7.5 per cent. In fact, ever since the BJP and the two regional parties — the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party — dislodged the Congress in the late 1980s, the party has never been able to recover ground.
The Bihar story is similar. The party won 48 seats and 52 per cent of the vote in this State in 1984. It bagged two seats this year and just 8.4 per cent of the vote. The party now appears to be in terminal decline in West Bengal, the truncated Andhra Pradesh and possibly, Odisha. In West Bengal, the party ruled for long years until the Communists dislodged it in 1977. Thereafter, the left Front clung to power for 34 years and try as it might, the Congress was unable to recover ground. However, there was one glimmer of hope when in the early 1980s, a feisty young woman member of the party, called Mamata Banerjee, displayed the pugnacity of a street-fighter and took on the Marxists. As she grew politically, the party’s high command (the Nehru-Gandhis) could not tolerate the rise of a strong, independent leader and began giving her pinpricks. They wanted to reap the benefit of her agitational politics but wanted her to be under their thumb.
Fed up with the machinations of the so-called high command, Ms Banerjee broke away and launched the Trinamool Congress. Thereafter, the Congress, which was number two in the State behind the Marxists, was relegated to the third place. Now, this May has brought another shock for the party. The BJP has emerged as a serious player in West Bengal and pushed the Congress to fourth place in terms of vote share. In this election, the BJP secured 17 per cent of the vote, as against just 9.6 per cent of the Congress.
In Odisha, another State where the Congress was long entrenched in power, its vote share has fallen to a dangerous 26 per cent in this election and the BJP, with 21.6 per cent, is already snapping at its heels. There is every danger of the BJP upstaging the Congress in this State also. The party’s condition is even more worrisome in the truncated Andhra Pradesh after the division of that State into Andhra and Telangana. The party, which had swept the polls in 2009, was completely trounced this year with its candidates securing just three to four per cent of the votes. It is now relegated to fourth place behind the Telugu Desam Party, the YSR Congress and the BJP.
Finally, we come to the big States where the Congress is directly pitted against the BJP — Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka. Barring Karnataka, in all the other States, the gap between the BJP and Congress in terms of vote share is huge. In Gujarat and Rajasthan, the gap is a humongous 25 per cent, while in Madhya Pradesh it is 19 per cent. It is over 10 per cent in the other States. It will require a miracle for the party to recover ground in these States.
Going by these indicators, one can say that Mr Modi has made considerable progress towards his goal of uprooting the Congress in the country. But, there is still some work to be done and many leaders of the Congress like Mr Digvijaya Singh, who want Mr Rahul Gandhi to lead the party in the lok Sabha, appear to be working overtime to help Mr Modi achieve his goal of a ‘Congress-Mukt Bharat’.