Political turmoil in Ukraine worrisome for India
Tuesday should hopefully see an interim Government take charge in Kiev even as the political crisis in Ukraine continues to unravel. However, it remains unclear if the new national unity regime will be able to restore normalcy in the country, where those supporting closer ties with the European Union have been agitating for months against the now-ousted Government of Viktor Yanukovich, which was more favourable to Russia. From India's perspective, the turmoil in Ukraine is a matter of grave concern. The two countries have maintained ties since 1992 and these have strengthened significantly in recent years, especially following the successful 2012 state visit of Mr Yanukovich to India. Bilateral trade has grown manifold, from $138.62 million in 1992 to $3,103.93 billion in 2012-2013. During the previous fiscal alone, Indian exports to Ukraine were pegged at $519.66 million, with pharmaceuticals making up for a lion's share (at about US$ 300 million). That same year, India also imported goods worth $2,584.27 million and received foreign direct investment worth approximate $1.12 million from Ukraine. Additionally, India has also been building military ties with Ukraine, after the two signed a defence agreement during Mr Yanukovich's visit. This was only natural given that Indian military hardware is almost entirely of Russian origin and Ukraine had been an important base for the Soviet military-industrial complex. Ukraine is already helping modernise India's military transport aircraft fleet as well as providing military spares and engines for naval vessels. Finally, Ukraine has been especially supportive of India in the nuclear commerce sector. Clearly, India has a strong interest in ensuring that the situation in Ukraine is resolved at the earliest. However, New Delhi must exercise caution in this regard, as it cannot afford to be caught in the crosshairs of Russia, the European Union and now the US-led West which has also jumped into the fray. All are valued friends, with Russia and the US also being key defence partners.
The protests in Kiev took a ghoulish turn last week, when several demonstrators were killed by snipers, putting tremendous pressure on Ukraine's European partners to hammer out a peace deal between the Government and the opposition. The truce proved to be short-lived as Mr Yanukovich fled Kiev soon after and was impeached a day later. He is now wanted for mass murder. The new dispensation, led by Mr Oleksandr Turchinov, the Speaker of Parliament who is now acting President, has announced a fresh election for May 25. It has also freed Mr Yanukovich's rival Yulia Tymoshenko, who was serving jail time on corruption charges. The military has vowed to remain neutral. For now, the scales are tilted towards those favouring the EU. But the situation remains fluid — Mr Yanukovich, whose whereabouts remain unknown, has alleged a coup against him, and there have been rumblings of protests in the eastern and southern parts of the country which are closer to Russia, not just geographically but socially, politically and economically too. Mr Putin, who has suffered a diplomatic setback with Mr Yanukovich absconding, is unlikely to give up so easily, more so in the face of an increasing presence of the West in Ukraine’s affairs.