PNB fraud is helping BJP's opponents trump its strongest suit: Communication strategy
Some did the math early and put out a ‘simple' question: Given the over Rs 11,000 crore swindle of tax-payers' money by diamond merchant Nirav Modi and family in which Punjab National Bank and other public sector banks were duped began in 2011 and was discovered in early 2018, the scam played out co-terminus with three years of the Congress-led UPA regime (2011-14) and three years of the BJP-led NDA Government (2014-2017). Ergo, hamam mein sab nange hain. This is, of course, a gross over-simplification of a well-connected, high society diamond merchant's elaborate swindle in collusion with corrupt PNB officials by exploiting loopholes that have existed for years if not decades. But given the soundbite-based political discourse that has replaced the substantive cut and thrust of politics on the issues of the day, and the BJP cannot elide responsibility for encouraging this dumbing down which has been a key aspect of its communications strategy, it is par for the course.
It can and should be argued by the Government that the PNB scam is a classic example of the modus operandi of crony capitalism embedded in the state-owned banking system by the Congress Party that reached its apogee under the UPA II administration, and Nirav's loot was in fact detected by the system under a BJP Government which has taken steps to make the checks and balances systems more robust. Or, indeed, that the recoveries of diamonds and gems worth over Rs 5,000 crore in just one day following raids of Nirav's jewelry showrooms and corporate offices on Thursday means that half the money can theoretically be said to have recovered if he doesn't pay up. But all this will have limited impact in terms of messaging as the loot-and-scoot businessmen, as it were, from lalit Modi to Vijay Mallya and now Nirav Modi, are seen as a continuum of a system that plays by different rules for the wealthy and powerful in India, letting them escape justice loot intact That's not an optic any administration can escape without political damage.
The Modi Government's saving grace, however, is likely to be the perception of the personal incorruptibility of the Prime Minister albeit it is one which should have the BJP's communication managers worried sick given how they, then in the Opposition, played on a similar public perception of former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh; so, a degree of diminishing of the latter half of the “na khaoonga, na khaane doonga” vow will have to be factored in to counter the BJP-baiters' narrative that is emerging; not to take on graft charges which the people will not buy but those of implied incompetence. Despite the Opposition trying desperately throwing mud in the hope that some will stick — Demonetisation, Rafale, Jay Shah et.al — the BJP Government is still widely perceived as having no scams attached to it.
But in recalibrating its communication strategy in election year, the party will have to come up with a narrative that includes an honest admission of the limitations of power to deflect charges of incompetence on three points that the Opposition is harping on because they are getting them some traction: (i) letting the fat cats including Nirav Modi, his wife and relatives get out of the country; (ii) The PMO not following through with the Registrar of Companies subsequent to a 2016 complaint apparently received by the former on what Nirav & Co were up to; (iii) The Government not having drastically reformed and restructured the public sector banking architecture in India including the entire auditory system and banking regulatory mechanisms that it knew had been serving as the main conduit for crony capitalism under the Congress.