The old Fabian-cum-Marxist narrative has little chance of coming back, assuming that a strong NDA regime runs its full term. The latter’s generation-next reforms will be impossible to reverse
The impending general election for the 16th lok Sabha will lead to the final goodbye for the kind of Nehruvian Socialist model of development which has refused to let India live up to its potential. The two exceptions to the sorry narrative of minimum growth, rampant inflation and dashed aspirations were the terms of PV Narasimha Rao and Atal Bihari Vajpayee, both of whom went in for bold structural and market-friendly reforms. Both regimes have had the greatest impact on the economic development of India. In an aggregated 10 years, a minority Congress Government and the only BJP one so far, changed both our world-view and our possibilities. But this time, we are not just electing a BJP/NDA Government, but probably putting paid to a failed ideology along with its dynastic delivery systems.
The old Fabian-cum-Marxist narrative has little or no chance of coming back, assuming that we’ll have a strong NDA Government that runs its full term. Generation-next reforms coming up will be impossible to reverse, even as the reforms of 1991-1995 and 1998-2004 have left their enduring mark. It is thanks to these years past that India is regarded as a potential superpower and sometime capable of overtaking China in its growth and development. But it is the next five years that will build the conviction about India’s lost renaissance, both at home and abroad.
Recent credible opinion polls give the BJP, on its own, a seat win of anywhere between 195 and 245. Even staunch supporters of the Congress are constrained to agree that the BJP-led NDA will most likely form the next Government at the centre. Only Mr Rahul Gandhi insists that the opinion polls are a ‘joke’ and designed to demoralise Congress cadres, and that the Congress will actually win 200 seats. The other fantasist is the bizarre Mr Arvind Kejriwal, who expects his Aam Aadmi Party to win at least 100 seats to the lok Sabha.
The halfway mark is, of course, 272. The BJP/NDA is, as per all forecasts, not quite able to reach the majority figure on its own. leader of Opposition in the Rajya Sabha and BJP poll strategist Arun Jaitley, seized of the shortfall, has been exhorting the party cadre to increase the expected vote share projected at 35 per cent on average, by another four per cent, to make a further dramatic impact on the seat tally.
The allegedly cynical murmurs of the so-called ‘160 Club’ within the BJP, reportedly not in favour of Mr Narendra Modi as Prime Minister, will hopefully be belied. Perhaps the whole concoction is no more than Congress disinformation and propaganda. The BJP, out of power at the Centre for 10 years, is not likely to harm its own chances when it is looking better than ever before.
Despite a vastly better showing in most opinion polls, the BJP will need to rope in more pre- or post-poll entities to form the Government. However, any tally above 185, on its own, will place the party in the pole position to attract allies; and almost all forecasts do give it a much higher figure as on date. The BJP central election committee’s and Mr Modi’s decision to contest from Varanasi, in addition to Gujarat, will most likely increase the seat tally in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and other areas populated by Purvanchalis. And while the Hindi heartland projections are looking good, the yield from the South and West, directly and via declared and potential allies, also appears most promising. The east and North-East seems, however, to be with the Congress still. But all in all, it is generally agreed, by all learned observers and analysts, the last mile towards Government formation will not be too difficult this time around.
Conversely, the huge losses expected to be suffered by the Congress, projected to give up over a 100 seats from its 2009 tally of 206, and a corresponding weakening of its allies as well as some of the regional parties as well, will bring about seismic shifts in the political landscape. In time, it not only spells the beginning of the end of dynastic politics, but augurs well for a consolidated two-party system of the left and the Right.
Other developments seen this time include the presidential notion of a prime ministerial candidate, and the promotion of the idea that decision-making in future will involve not just the Centre but also the States in the matter of resource-allocations and autonomous decision-making powers. Merit-based political selection — that has allowed a Narendra Modi to rise high from humble beginnings, along with a number of other BJP Chief Ministers — will now irrevocably change the political discourse.
The meritorious in politics will not be held back in future because of dynastic calculations. Neither will equal opportunity be denied to any caste, creed or religion on vote-bank calculations. The reservations’ route to political mileage and jobs too may be on the wane.
Still, the Congress and the various other Socialist/ lohiaite/vote-bank oriented parties may coalesce into a single party of the left, harking back to its mythical glory days of ‘inclusiveness’ and ‘concern’ for the poor. This despite a dismal track record of delivering any succour to any of its target audiences. But it is after all a free country.
likewise, the NDA and friends, old and new, interested in promoting growth, development, employment, infrastructure and security, among other robust issues, may well unite into a single political party of the Right. This may come about not just for ideological reasons, but due to the dictates of viability and sustainability. The Third Front’s failure to take off underlines the lack of traction for more than two sizeable national parties, and the pitfalls of seeking power without a plan or philosophy. Moreover, a fragmented polity made up of a plethora of small parties has never been able to provide stable governance, as the Janata Dal experiments have proved in the past.
Similarly, the pulls and tugs of coalition politics are certainly one reason for policy paralysis, even as another has been the dual centres of power in the UPA, a diarchy, endured by the public for the last 10 under-performing years.
The sharp decline in the popularity of the hugely corrupt Congress, despite its massive welfare programmes, is both significant and notable. The debate and discussion is already shifting to masses of unsolicited advice on what the NDA’s post-poll priorities ought to be. The expectations from Mr Modi are high, but there is every confidence among voters that the NDA Government can, and will, indeed, deliver.