This will be the first political transition in Afghanistan through the ballot box and only the third election of a President. A lot rests on the successful conduct of the poll and the emergence of a stable and viable regime
Hugging the Hindukush on a bright and sunny afternoon the Saturday before last (November 16), Air India’s Flight 243 landed smoothly at Kabul International Airport. We were greeted by an inconspicuous ‘Welcome to the land of the Brave’ hoarding. But soon the weather packed up. As a dense blanket covered Kabul, a suicide bomber blew up at least 200kg of Made-in-Pakistan fertiliser, packed into a Corolla, near the Polytechnic area, killing 20 persons and maiming another 100. His target was the German-built shamiana designed for the meeting of 3,000 Afghan elders at the loya Jirga where they would ratify the long-awaited Bilateral Security Agreement between the US and Afghanistan. For the next six days, Kabul would be locked down and its chaotic traffic come to grinding to a halt.
Instead of clearing the uncertainty of US and Nato military presence in Afghanistan post-2014, when their combat roles end, the reverse has happened, following Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s speech at the loya Jirga and an interview to William Dalrymple — the India-Pakistan-proxy-war-in-Afghanistan alarmist — that was published in the November 20th international edition of New York Times. Mr Karzai’s tough talking on the BSA — that even after it was approved by the loya Jirga, the agreement would still be signed only after the Presidential election slated for April next year, and possibly by his successor — is integral to his doublespeak and part of embellishing his legacy.
Afghanistan’s National Security Adviser Rangin Spanta explained in Parliament that the wrinkles of the BSA, that had threatened to wreck it, had been ironed out, including the issues of immunity for US troops and independent operations by them under exceptional circumstances. The James Dobbins-David Rank AfPak pointsmen have been haggling over the terms of the BSA for one long year, though the number troops that will remain in Afghanistan after 2014 has not been disclosed yet.
The rumour in Kabul was that Pakistan and Iran were keen to kill the BSA and its choreography was available on tape. According to Mr Spanta, it was a good deal and not only would the US pay for the military, it would further strengthen the Afghan National Security Force.
The bargaining for military bases has involved aspirational demands — making Afghanistan secure, stable and peaceful with a unitary centralised Government. US commitment is to preserve the gains of the past decade and make a responsible drawdown: There is a clause on mutual consultation, in the event of external aggression, though this is defined ambiguously. The US’s residual role to train, assist, and advise Afghan forces, and conduct counter-terrorism operations is unlikely to expand in the short term.
In his interview to Mr Dalrymple, Mr Karzai has spoken about alleged misdeeds of America in causing too many civilian casualties, the failure to fight terrorism “where it was and where it is” and subordinating Afghanistan’s national interests to their own. He even said that he might be forced to seek “help elsewhere”. The apology he sought from the US did not come, though words of comfort and reassurance were plenty. All in all, there is little comfort for US security planners who say they need a minimum of a year to implement the BSA, after it has been signed. Mr Karzai’s eyes are on the next election. He does not want to be seen playing with Afghanistan’s sovereignty and strategic autonomy — or what little is left of it— despite the pro forma rendering of Afghan-owned and Afghan-driven national processes.
Two other events clouded the horizon: The Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan’s announcement of the 11 presidential candidates and the visit of the Afghan High Peace Council to Pakistan to meet Mullah Omar’s deputy, Mullah Baradar. The uncertainty over the BSA will cast a shadow over the reconciliation process which has remained a non starter after the Qatar fiasco.
The other peace process between Afghanistan and Pakistan has also not taken off. This is despite numerous high-level bilaterals and the establishment of an inter-Governmental mechanism to remove the enormous distrust and suspicion between Islamabad and Kabul. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf chief Imran Khan’s stirred campaign in Khyber Pakhtoonkhwa, to block Nato convoys, in protest against US drone strikes, will add to the air of uncertainty in Afghanistan. The right of passage, a federal issue, is bound to embarrass Islamabad and lead to Centre-State confrontation.
Of the 11 final Afghan presidential hopefuls, out of the 27 candidates who had registered, no one is representing the Taliban— though all are Pashtuns and some former Mujahideens and warlords. The top three favourites in the first opinion poll held last month were Mr Abdullah Abdullah, Mr Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai and Mr Qayum Karzai, the President’s brother. A month later, while the first two have retained their slots, Mr Karzai has been replaced by Mr Zalmay Rasoul.
This is the first political transition in Afghanistan through the ballot box and the third election of a President. Since 1973, none of the Presidents has completed their term. Each presidential team cuts across ethnic lines and draws on all major ethnic groups: Tajik, Uzbek, Hazara and Pashtun. Although political change in Afghanistan has been imposed from outside, unlike the transformation in Nepal which was from within, a social churning is evident due to 30 years of conflict and a decade of democracy. A fair and free election is vital for political and security stability that will put Afghanistan on the path of uninterrupted transformation.
The security situation in Afghanistan is not as bad or as hopeless, as it is made out to be. The biggest internal threat to the ANSF is uncertainty over the BSA. The Americans could not cobble a BSA with Iraq leading to a civil war. Over 1,000 Iraqis are killed every week but Iraq has oil that pays for its security forces. Although the ANSF is losing 100 soldiers a week, recruitment continues to replenish the casualties. All security operations are actually Afghan-led, throughout the country. The presence of residual US and Nato troops will facilitate ANSF holding ground. South and east Afghanistan will not fall to the Taliban. The five big cities of Herat, Mazar-e-Sharif, Kabul, Kandahar and Jalalabad will also hold. And so will the Ring Road, currently with ISAF. A successful election next year will be a victory for ANSF (and the US) and a defeat for the Taliban. On the wave of an electoral victory, US and Nato can withdraw, heads held high. But for the ANSF, to keep the flag flying, the BSA has to be in place by the year end. I left Kabul convinced Mr Karzai will fall in line.
(The accompanying visual is of men in a teahouse, watching Afghan President Hamid Karzai, live on television, as he speaks to the loya Jirga, in Kabul, Afghanistan on November 24. AP photo by Anja Niedringhaus)