From Narendra Modi’s pan-national aura to Kiran Bedi’s middle-class popularity, from Ajay Maken’s futuristic leadership to Arvind Kejriwal’s populist idealism, many factors will influence the Delhi Assembly poll
By their very nature, elections in Delhi tend to be pulsating, nail-biting and worthy of enormous news coverage. This is not necessarily intended as praise. As the old Kissinger aphorism goes, when the stakes are small, the politics is at its most intense. Delhi is a metropolitan area masquerading as a State. Its 70 Assembly constituencies cover tiny legislative geographies and small populations that should fittingly belong to a municipal corporation. MlAs in other States —genuine MlAs, serving vast areas and communities — would be envious of their Delhi counterparts, who get the same legislator badge without needing to put in half the effort.
Yet, this very mix — small constituencies, notable vote swings, urban, inner-city constituencies where old factors like caste and community matter less and less (except in outer Delhi segments that still have substantial Jat or Gujjar concentrations), the substantial presence and influence of media — makes Delhi elections that much more unpredictable. It led to the Aam Aadmi Party making a dramatic debut in 2013 and has raised many questions and much speculation about the upcoming vote in the city-State on February 7.
The default analysis is that this is a two-way contest between the BJP and the AAP, with the Congress reduced to a cipher. Those who are making this argument are doing so on two grounds. First, they believe Muslim, Dalit and urban poor voters — all pillars of the Congress under Ms Sheila Dikshit (Chief Minister from 1998 to 2013) have migrated wholesale to the AAP, seeing it as the only formidable challenger to the BJP.
Second, they say the middle classes, and Delhi is a strongly middle-class State, are still broadly behind Mr Narendra Modi and the BJP. Their affinity for the BJP will likely be strengthened by the entry of Ms Kiran Bedi, so the assessment goes. In such a scenario, the Congress is left with very little. Such assumptions are pat and quick but not necessarily without their loopholes. For instance, the conclusion that Mr Modi’s undeniable appeal across India (and especially urban India) leaves Delhi’s poor and its Dalits, among others, completely untouched, flies in the face of evidence from a contest as recent as the 2014 lok Sabha election.
Next, while the sympathy of the middle classes for Mr Modi is obvious, it doesn’t automatically translate into queuing up at polling stations to back the BJP. Most clearly in Delhi, where the BJP’s candidate selection in 2013 was extremely disappointing, sentiment for Mr Modi remains far higher than for his party. In the coming days, the BJP will need to energise its campaign by opting for candidates who appeal to Delhi’s emergent urban sensibilities, rather than go with the tired inheritors and uninspired choices it made a year and a half ago.
How will the entry of Ms Bedi affect the BJPIJ To be fair, she has her share of detractors and sceptics, those who feel she has had a history of seeking publicity and jumping ships. Having said that, it is equally true that she has a quantum of middle-class popularity and is perhaps a more compelling face for the party’s local campaign than any of the Delhi BJP leaders currently on offer. She is also difficult for the AAP to attack without calling into question its own credibility.
Either as chief ministerial candidate or as chief rival to Mr Arvind Kejriwal (in both his constituency and in the city as a whole), Ms Bedi will spend the three weeks to voting day chasing the AAP chief neighbourhood to neighbourhood, mohalla to mohalla, constituency to constituency. like him, she was a founding member of India Against Corruption. like him, she is a former civil servant with a largely upright professional record. As such, there is little Mr Kejriwal can do to demolish her platform and persona without casting aspersions on the AAP’s very existence and the sources of his political identity.
To use a football expression, what the BJP has resorted to is man-to-man marking. It has deployed a defender to mark and constrict the manoeuvrability and space of the ace striker of the opposite team — to bottle him up. This is exactly what Ms Bedi will seek to do to Mr Kejriwal and as such blunt the AAP’s aggression.
Finally, there is the Congress. Is it being under-rated just as the AAP was by so many (including this writer) in 2013IJ This is not to suggest that the Congress will win the election or do even close to as well as the AAP (let alone the BJP) did in the previous election. It is only to contend that a better-than-expected performance by the Congress could end up hurting the AAP among demographic groups it is beginning to take for granted.
Till a few weeks ago, the Congress was down in the dumps, reconciled to a second successive drubbing and a third-place finish. That Mr Ajay Maken has taken charge of the Congress has given it just that much more of a boost. There is now the possibility of stalwart Congress politicians, former MlAs and MPs, going back to their old constituencies and fighting the Assembly election. Mr Maken is a man with an eye on the future and is seen as the Congress’ natural leader in Delhi after Ms Dikshit. He, and his colleagues, are unwilling to give the AAP and the BJP a walkover, even if some senior Congress politicians, including those in the Dikshit camp and in the central leadership, are advocating playing second fiddle to Mr Kejriwal.
What will this result inIJ Will the Congress recover enough to make the coming election a proper three-cornered contestIJ Will this damage the AAPIJ Will the BJP be able to exploit this chance by running a tight, modern and futuristic campaign — and nominating a series of new and untainted candidates with whom urban voters can connectIJ On the other hand, will the AAP conquer all, as its unfailing, untiring social media warriors never desist from insistingIJ We’ll know on February 10.
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