Security concerns plague promising gas pipeline
Two decades after it was first proposed, the Trans-Afghanistan Pipeline, commonly known as the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India pipeline, is finally underway. The pipeline should be operational by end 2018, although it will take another three to four years after that for the construction of the entire 1,800 km-long pipeline to be completed. Once the whole pipeline is in place, it will export up to 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas a year from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India over three decades.
From an energy security point of view, the benefits of this project are obvious: Both India and Pakistan are energy-starved nations while Afghanistan's energy appetite will only grow as it progresses on the path of development and prosperity. Moreover, since natural gas is clean energy, TAPI will be helping with the efforts of all the three nations to grow and develop in a sustainable manner. From a financial standpoint, Afghanistan and Pakistan will be making a handsome amount of money in transit fees while the entire Turkmen economy stands to gain once the pipeline is operationalised. Turkmenistan has the world's fourth largest proven gas reserves and TAPI will allow it to diversify its export market, which is currently functioning below potential.
Previously, Russia was one of Turkmenistan's biggest gas clients. However, since the imposition of Western sanctions, Russian gas purchases have plummeted and there has been much heartburn between Moscow and Ashgabat on the issue of gas prices. In this period, China has stepped in, but the Turkmen don’t want to be become too dependent on Beijing. In terms of geo-politics, TAPI can galvanise regional diplomacy between South and Central. Apart from adding a new element to bilateral ties, it will also spur ongoing efforts to set up roadways and rail lines between India and Central Asia. This in turn will deepen economic cooperation, lead to greater regional integration and, for India in particular, offer an opportunity to emerge as a major player in Eurasia.
But let us not forget that there is a reason why TAPI hasn't taken off in two decades — the pipeline runs through some of the most dangerous parts of the world including Taliban-strongholds in Afghanistan and an insurgency-infested Balochistan — and its physical security remains a matter of concern. Even in a best case scenario, hundreds of soldiers will have to be deployed to protect the pipeline. That the Pakistani Government is considering talking to the Taliban for security underlines the challenges at hand. Still, if the project is now making progress inspite of these concerns, it is because of changing geo-politics: For one, Turkmenistan's economic imperatives were accelerated after the Iranian nuclear deal which brought a new competitor to the gas market (India, for example, is now also looking at an India-Oman-Iran pipeline). Also, America now sees TAPI as a tool to undercut Russian and Chinese hegemony in the region.