Will snap poll help the Israeli Prime MinisterIJ
It is difficult at the moment to predict what sort of Government will be formed in Israel, now that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has called for a fresh mandate mid-way in the tenure of the present regime. But regardless of the outcome, it is clear that Mr Netanyahu will play an influential role, and could well return to power as the head of a different sort of coalition.
His critics will point out that he has many factors going against him: His popularity rating has registered a dip; the US and the European nations don't really like him; his sacked Ministers Tzipi livni and Yair lapid are among the other influential leaders who are determined to see him beaten at the hustings; and, many countries of Europe are preparing to recognise a Palestinian nation despite his stiff protests. But what is working to Mr Netanyahu's advantage is that there is no clear alternative to him. Moreover, he continues to enjoy the backing of the radical elements within and outside his party — which may be good in one sense and constraining in others.
Neither Mr lapid nor Ms livni is seen as credible enough to lead the country, or at least having it in them to steer a nation continually challenged by extremists such as the Hamas and also by hostile nations like Iran. The incumbent Prime Minister could also benefit from the political churning that is on in his country, with more parties vying to have a pie of the cake, and thus undercutting the possibility of a combined opposition to his leadership. Mr lapid, who represents the Yesh Atid Party, and Ms livni are considered ‘centrists' by Israeli standards, and may join hands, but that is not going to be enough to rattle Mr Netanyahu.
The Prime Minister has been careful enough to maintain his image of a no-nonsense leader, and has resorted to apparently confrontational and provocative actions such as visiting the Temple Mount. His brushes with the Obama Administration and many of the West's leaders have actually fortified his image among his supporters and fence-sitters. And that is what matters to him for the moment. It is unlikely that he will greatly soften his position on the eve of an election that will in all probability be fought on the slogan of a strong leadership that keeps Israel's interests supreme at all costs.
All this does not, however, mean that it will be smooth sailing for Mr Netanyahu. The Prime Minister's gamble of an early election is designed precisely to pre-empt a further downswing in his approval rating, ratchet up nationalist sentiments and prevent further disintegration of the coalition he leads. If his gamble fails to work, then there is little that Mr Netanyahu has up his sleeves to check the damage. Of course, he can, with a view to winning over moderate voters, temper his belligerence just a bit. That may or may not work, depending on the extent he is willing to go towards an appeasement. Whatever happens, ‘Bibi’ cannot be written off.