We must set our strategies and priorities right
For a second year in a row, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a near normal monsoon this summer. This bodes well for the overall growth of the economy as well as for agriculture, both of which have been reeling under stress for the last couple of years. Agriculturally, the forecast must bring cheer to the farming community and it must prepare itself for an enhanced agricultural outcome. That India is an agriculture-based economy, which is largely dependent on the monsoon, is known. It is, therefore, expected that the gift of the rain god will lead to better crop yield, which will result in a rise in rural demand and thereby alleviate farmers’ distress, who have off and on resorted to frequent strikes due to agrarian distress — many have committed suicide. The role of the monsoons on the overall growth and development of the economy too cannot be more emphasised. A good monsoon will mean a boost to water reservoir levels, more hydropower and reduced wars over water-sharing and availability. However, despite the IMD's positive prediction, the monsoon is fraught with uncertainties. Two crucial phenomenon in this regard deserve mention. First, is the El Niño factor, which refers to an unusual rise of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, and which is also known to curtail rainfall in this region, bound to cast its shadowIJ The effects of El Niño are hard to predict now, but they will be known later when the monsoon is in its final stage. The second is to do with the la Niña phenomenon, which is just the opposite of the El Niño impact, and is known to boost rainfall. Expectations are high that the la Niña factor may well counter the El Niño phenomenon, both of which may take some time, if not months. last year, while the IMD predicted rains to be above normal, which is 106 per cent, the actual rainfall was 97 per cent, as la Niña remained in a neutral state. Welcome as this year’s developments may be, both phenomena are just two of the many complex factors that determine actual rainfall. At the crux of the matter, one may ask: Why be dependent on monsoons at all when they have largely been unpredictable every yearIJ
This calls for a need to pull up our socks in the implementation of effective water management strategies to save whatever we have and will get. There's a need to shore up our water storage systems such as ponds, tanks and reservoirs, besides the dams. Side by side, we need to effectively use water — for domestic, industrial and agricultural purposes. Equipping farmers with modern technologies, training them on the use of varieties of seeds, encouraging them to use less water-intensive crops and granting them financial aid can help them overcome the vagaries of the monsoon. Additionally, what we need is a sustainable water usage policy that can help us maintain a balance between the demand and supply of water. We must change our age-old habits too.