Hopes pinned on clear mandate for governance
The people of Maharashtra and Haryana vote today to elect their State Governments. Given that, with the collapse of alliances, there are multi-cornered contests in both the States, let us see whether the results throw up a clear (or at least a near-clear) mandate for one party for effective rule or produce hung Assemblies. From available indications, the Bharatiya Janata Party is the clear favourite in Maharashtra, with some pre-poll surveys predicting that it will touch the magical 145-mark in the 288-member House. But there are other surveys that have given it numbers short of this figure, although even they accept that the BJP will be by far the single-largest party in the State and that it will be able to cobble up the numbers through alliances to form a Government. But those possibilities are presently in the realm of speculation, and we need to wait for October 19 for the result. It is evident for now, though, that contrary to doomsayers, the BJP seems to be actually benefiting from its decision to part ways with its long-time ally, the Shiv Sena, hours before nominations for contesting candidates were to close in the State. Unfettered by alliance constraints that came from its relationship with the Shiv Sena, the party has gone the full way in promoting itself in the State, leaving its cadre doubly energised. It is the fact that the BJP was for the first time in the State fighting the electoral battle not just alone (with the exception of a clutch of smaller parties) but also taking on the formidable Shiv Sena which enjoys a large mass base, that led to the party's decision to unleash the full force of Mr Modi's charisma in the campaigning. Criticism that Mr Modi has given far too much attention to a State election rather than to his duties as Prime Minister, should be seen as a desperate response from his rivals who have been rattled by his aggressive campaigning and the seeming impact it has made in the State. This explains why everyone, from Mr Uddhav Thackeray of the Shiv Sena to Mr Sharad Pawar of the Nationalist Congress Party to even Mr Raj Thackeray of the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena, have taken potshots at Mr Modi for devoting so much time to the State election. Given that the BJP is determined to oust the Congress from power in as many States as it can, it was only natural for the party to use its strongest card to the hilt. It goes to Mr Modi's credit that he has, as a good leader, led from the front. The same cannot be said of certain leaders of other national parties.
The situation in Haryana, which elects 90 MlAs to the Assembly, is similar to that of Maharashtra, in the sense that voters of Haryana too have to contend with many parties battling on their own and not through the strength of partnerships. The BJP took a calculated risk — as it did in Maharashtra — by severing its links with the Kuldeep Bishnoi-led Haryana Janhit Congress, together with whom it had contested the lok Sabha election. But the BJP does not have, from available indications at least, an easy passage. Notwithstanding his conviction by the court, Om Prakash Chautala appears to have put up a fight. His Indian National lok Dal is seen as a strong challenger to the BJP. Meanwhile, the Congress, is fighting more for survival than to retain power in Haryana.