BJP’s stance in dealing with Pakistan has been both more aggressive and assertive than that of Congress. The real test would be if it can raise the cost for Pakistan's recent fidayeen attacks through infiltration
For me, the first column of the new year will have a wish and a resolve to strive for it. If India is to rise to its full potential it should make 2015 the year in which to normalise relations with Pakistan; and Pakistan in turn, should give up, as it has pledged, its support for terrorism — because without resolving our differences, the boundary issue with China can also not be settled anytime soon.
Alas, we have not started the new year on a propitious note given the alleged ‘terror/smuggler boat incident’ and the continued firing along the borders. I am no Pakistan apologist but a Gorkha General who has grown up since the mid-1950s fed on the brief that Pakistan ‘is the immediate threat and China the long-term challenge’. 58 years on, despite four wars, a gigantic military victory and three big terrorist assaults, little has changed in Islamabad’s quest to achieve parity with New Delhi. Having failed in that mission, it has done everything to bring India down. But post-Peshawar, Pakistan’s civil society and the establishment, less the military, are having second thoughts on terrorism as state policy.
That the levels of mistrust and suspicion are so deep was reflected in the electronic and print media the moment breaking news hit TV channels on the second day of the new year. They ran a repeat of ‘26/11 averted’; ‘terror boat near shores’; ‘Pakistan has not changed its ways’ etc. On a TV panel discussion, I was the only person, among seven, to say it is early yet to nail Pakistan : Do not jump to conclusions. There is little merit in recounting media accounts of the incident except to say — as Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar said on January 5 — that boatmen, possibly terrorists rather than smugglers, were involved in an illicit transaction in international waters.
The National Technical Research Organisation is apparently the only intelligence agency which had intercepted satellite phone conversations of the fisherfolk which was passed on to the Coast Guard at Porbandar. The Coast Guard account of the fishing vessel going down was contradicted by several senior naval officers and according to one source, the boat may well have been sunk inadvertently by warning shots. Back in the TV studios, theories about lashkar cadres trained by the Pakistan Navy were being launched.
Other media reports said that two Pakistani fishing boats were in touch with the Pakistan Army and maritime security agency through a contact who was in touch with another contact in Thailand. This version was finally confirmed by Mr Parrikar late on January 5. Reference was also made to intercepts indicating a 26/11 Mark II to wreck the Pravasi Bharatiya Divas, Vibrant Gujarat Summit and the inauguration of the Porbandar naval facility by the Prime Minister planned for the second and third weeks of this month.
Scattered reports attributed to intelligence agencies suggested that the rogue vessels (two in number) “were attempting to land explosives in India for terror in Gujarat and Maharashtra” —a la 1993 Mumbai bombings. Initially, Pakistan denied any Pakistani fishing boat had left Karachi. But later, an admission followed with names of the probable four on board. Not to be cowed down by the blame for the attempted terrorist strike, Pakistan’s Ministry of Defence said, “This is Indian propaganda to divert attention from the killing of two Pak Rangers on December 31 on the line of Control”.
It is worth pointing out that since 26/11, coastal surveillance — especially of the West Coast — monitoring and interception procedures have improved phenomenally with minimal gaps but backed by real-time intelligence. The Information Management and Analysis Centre, Gurgaon, focuses on the maritime security domain and is linked with 20 Naval and 30 Coast Guard stations along with 51 nodes across the coast line. Two months ago, the Navy conducted a defence of Gujarat exercise to test the security of the strategic coastline and key oil installations and ports. Given this eagle-eye security cover, it is foolish on the part of Pakistan, to attempt to break the cordon sanitaire, especially at a time when Gujarat is to be visited by their military’s favourite friend, Secretary of State John Kerry, for the Vibrant Gujarat Summit. The commendable action of the Coast Guard speaks for itself.
Firing on the line of Control, is akin to Aesop’s Fables — popular and everlasting — since the Cease Fire line was demarcated in 1949. It is difficult to tell who initiated the firing, though Pakistan is the one which needs to infiltrate terrorists into Kashmir to keep the fires of azadi and insurgency burning.. The White Flag incident where Border Security Force is alleged to have killed two Pakistani Rangers in cold blood has incensed Pakistan like the beheading of Indian jawans on the line of Control enraged India two year ago. The ratcheting up of the line of Control by Pakistan is revenge for the act of betrayal. The revenge cycle has been triggered off. All is fair in love and on the line of Control. There are no angels or demons. The UN Military Observer Group India Pakistan, which was deployed to detect or determine the side which violated the ceasefire, was unilaterally de-recognised after the 1971 war by India. But it is around as it cannot be officially shut down.
In the TV studios, the politicisation of security was unending. The BJP stance in dealing with Pakistan has been both more aggressive and assertive than that of the Congress. The orders to the troops on the line of Control are to return fire with compound interest — respond to five rounds with 50 rounds. Firing on the borders is hurting our own villagers. The real test of the new Government’s ‘tough’ policy would be if it can raise the cost for Pakistan’s recentfidayeen attacks by infiltration. These fidayeen strikes are extremely effective in causing damage and panic and are aimed at military targets.
The last NDA Government was considering an action plan for paying back Pakistan in the same coin to deter such fidayeen attacks but sufficient political will was lacking then. Now is the time to take up that plan but at the same time, find an opportune moment to help a post-Peshawar Pakistan to fight terrorism by offering to resume talks. Meanwhile, we should wait for the details of what the Ministry of Defence puts together on the terrorist boat attempting an illicit operation. I wish it were a little more deft in putting out information for the hungry.
(The accompanying visual is of a villager showing a mortar shell after firing from the Pakistani side at village Bainglad in Samba district, Jammu, on January 3, 2015. PTI photo)