Israel, Saudi Arabia move closer to thwart Iran
To those who follow developments in West Asia, news of Israel and Saudi Arabia coming together at the negotiating table does not really come as a surprise. There have been murmurs for long about the two nations playing footsie under the table and, in the years since the Arab uprising of 2011, there have also been talks of covert military cooperation. That said, official acknowledgement that Israel and Saudi Arabia have been working together, made at a think tank event in Washington, DC, last week, marks a watershed moment. It is also an indicator of the fast changing power dynamics in West Asia. Driving this round of diplomacy between Israel and Saudi Arabia is Kautilya's ancient lesson from the Arthashastra: My enemy's enemy is my friend. Both countries view Iran as their primary existential threat at the moment, and are seemingly willing to put aside their own differences (and there are many of those too) to contain a common enemy.
Neither can afford Iran getting the bomb but none has a seat at the ongoing negotiations between Tehran and the P5+1 powers on Iran's controversial nuclear programme. These negotiations are in the final stages and will possibly conclude at the end of this month. The plan is to cripple Iran's ability to have a military nuclear programme, in return for the lifting of sanctions, while still allowing it to pursue a civilian programme under a strict monitoring regime. Israel and Saudi Arabia worry that the deal may not be good enough to keep Iran from getting the bomb but both have largely come to terms with the fact that the deal is inevitable. Their more immediate concern is that the emerging bonhomie between Iran and the West (and the lifting of sanctions) will add muscle to Tehran's geo-political presence.
From Israel's point of view, Iran, which has repeatedly called for the destruction of the Jewish nation, will now be able to pump in more money and weapons to radical Palestinian groups and also embolden Hezbollah in lebanon. For Saudi Arabia, the rise of a Shia Iran is a direct threat to its Sunni supremacy in the region. They are already fighting a proxy war in Yemen, and Riyadh upped the ante on Thursday when it called for a regime change in Tehran and expressed support for a new state of Kurdistan which would include parts of Iran alongside the Kurdish regions of Turkey and Iraq.
As for the Israel-Saudi Arabia rapprochement, exciting as it maybe, these are still early days. Riyadh never has and still doesn't recognise Israel, and there's nothing to suggest that the Netanyahu Government is considering the Saudi-sponsored peace initiative with the Palestinians, a pre-requisite for normalising ties. But the two countries have previously made progress in improving ties —in 1981, King Fahd implicitly recognised Israel's right to exist, and Israel and Saudi Arabia jointly participated in five working groups on regional issues after the 1991 Madrid conference. Against this backdrop, a better working relationship between Riyadh and Jerusalem is very much within the realm of probability. For India, which has good relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia and Iran, the main takeaway is this: Those still arguing that New Delhi should downplay its relations with Israel, to avoid upsetting the Arabs, need to update their views.