Modi’s lahore visit can solidify peace process
It is immaterial whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi's sudden visit to lahore was planned or a last-minute decision. It is equally immaterial whether a third party was involved in the process. What is material is that Mr Modi yet again adopted an unconventional method to reach out to his Pakistani counterpart Nawaz Sharif in a bid to develop a closer personal relationship which will hopefully have a positive impact on the Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue process which has been kick-started by the two countries after a nearly three-year period of disruption. If the Indian Prime Minister has taken observers by surprise by his short trip to lahore to greet Mr Sharif on his birthday in person, it is to do with the perception that Mr Modi is a hawk when it comes to Pakistan policy. The impression had gained traction after New Delhi called off the Foreign Secretary level talks between the two nations after the Pakistani side met Hurriyat separatists prior to the dialogue in 2014. Almost a year later, National Security Advisor level talks too were called off over a dispute over the agenda of the meeting. However, it is clear from subsequent developments that Prime Minister Modi's Government has adopted a pragmatic policy that fits neither the hawk nor the dove definition. Mr Modi's critics may say that he does not have a consistent policy on Pakistan, but the fact is that, when it comes to Pakistan, the Indian policy has to be flexible given the situation of the moment. A pre-decided template cannot work — and it has not worked in the past. The Indian Prime Minister's outreach has the potential to add warmth to relations between him and his Pakistani counterpart, and this may come in handy when the dialogue process gets stuck in the coming months — as it invariably will because state or non-state actors who do not want peace between the two countries, will try to disrupt the initiative through acts of terror. The benefits of personal rapport have been evident in India's soaring relations with the US, for instance, (with President Barack Obama and Mr Modi striking a rare friendship). The ‘birthday diplomacy', as the Indian Prime Minister's short halt at lahore is being called, also had the benefit of being free of the burden of expectation that normally accompanies official trips.
Not surprisingly, Mr Modi's opponents back home have been critical of the visit. The Congress slammed the Prime Minister for not taking the “nation into confidence” over the “misadventure” and the Shiv Sena wondered whether Dawood Ibrahim would be handed over to India following the visit. For the major part, the criticism is provoked by the prospect that Mr Modi may actually end up mending India-Pakistan ties in his tenure and silence the Opposition. At least for now, the general perception in India and Pakistan over Mr Modi's lahore visit has been very positive. The challenge is to maintain this momentum. It would be fair to ask if the Prime Minister's confidence-building measures will result in action from Islamabad on bringing to justice the perpetrators of the 26/11 Mumbai attacks, the handing over of Dawood Ibrahim, and halt in cross-border terrorism. None of this is easily achievable for Mr Sharif, more so since the Pakistan Army, which remains inimical to India, still calls the shots on Islamabad’s policy.